宏观和微观因素对股票价格的影响:lq45指数公司的实证证据

Harijanto Sabijono, S. Murni, Irvan Trang, Inggriani Elim, Maryam Mangantar
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摘要

本研究旨在确定和分析盈利能力、资本结构、汇率和利率对投资风险的影响及其对lq45指数股票价格的影响。该分析是对印度尼西亚证券交易所(IDX)的25家lq45指数公司进行的,使用的是2012年至2020年财政年度的报告数据。本研究采用二级数据的解释设计,以JCI、股票回报、股票价格和财务报告数据的形式获得印度尼西亚证券交易所LQ 45指数公司,以及利率和汇率来自印度尼西亚银行和BPS。采用通径分析法,对25家企业进行为期9年的有目的抽样。研究结果表明,盈利能力对投资风险无显著影响,资本结构对投资风险有显著影响,汇率对投资风险有显著正向影响,利率对投资风险无显著影响,而资本结构通过投资风险作为中介变量对股价有间接显著影响。盈利能力对股价有显著的正向影响,投资风险作为盈利能力与股价之间的中介变量间接没有显著影响。资本结构对股价没有显著影响,投资风险作为资本结构与股价之间的中介变量间接没有显著影响。汇率对股价没有显著影响,投资风险作为汇率与股价之间的中介变量间接没有显著影响。利率对股票价格没有显著影响,投资风险作为利率与股票价格之间的中介变量间接没有显著影响。投资风险对股票价格无显著影响。
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The Role of Macro and Micro Factors in Determining Stock Price: Empirical Evidence of LQ 45 Index Companies
This study aims to determine and analyze the influence of Profitability, Capital Structure, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates on Investment Risk and their effect on LQ 45 Index Stock Prices. The analysis was conducted on 25 LQ 45 index companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) using report data financial year 2012 to 2020. This study uses an explanatory design using secondary data in the form of JCI, Stock Return, Stock prices and financial report data obtained from LQ 45 Index Companies on the Indonesian Stock Exchange, as well as interest rates and exchange rates sourced from Bank Indonesia and BPS. Samples were taken by purposive sampling of 25 companies for 9 years of observation, using path analysis.  The results of the study state that Profitability has no significant effect on Investment Risk, Capital Structure has a significant effect on Investment Risk, Exchange Rates have a positive and significant effect on Investment Risk, Interest Rates have no significant effect on Investment Risk However, Capital Structure has an indirect and significant effect on Stock Price through Investment Risk as an intervening variable. Profitability has a significant positive effect on stock prices, investment risk as an intervening variable between profitability and stock prices indirectly has no significant effect. Capital structure has no significant effect on stock prices, investment risk as an intervening variable between capital structure and stock prices indirectly has no significant effect. Exchange Rate has no significant effect on Stock Price, Investment Risk as an intervening variable between Exchange Rate and Stock Price indirectly has no significant effect. Interest Rates do not have a significant effect on Stock Prices, Investment Risk as an intervening variable between Interest Rates and Stock Prices indirectly does not have a significant effect. Investment risk has no significant effect on stock prices.
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