具有季节模式的综合电力系统用电量预测

Q3 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.22394/1993-7601-2020-60-5-25

A. Lozinskaia, A. Redkina, E. Shenkman

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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文根据2008年1月至2019年9月乌拉尔综合电力系统所有地区的月度数据，对电力消耗进行了中期预测。这项工作的一个关键特点是使用具有确定性和随机季节性的时间序列基本模型所产生的预测的线性组合。与基本模型相比，所提出的方法具有较高的预测精度，可应用于电力市场的不同参与者。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Electricity consumption forecasting for integrated power system with seasonal patterns

In the paper, a medium-term forecast of electricity consumption is built on monthly data from January 2008 to September 2019 for all regions of the Urals integrated power system. A key feature of the work is the use of linear combinations of forecasts that are produced with time series basic models with deterministic and stochastic seasonality. The proposed methodology demonstrates high and robust forecast accuracy in comparison with the basic models and can be applied by various players in the electricity market.

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来源期刊

Applied Econometrics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.