How circular is an extractive economy? South Africa's export orientation results in low circularity and insufficient societal stocks for service-provisioning

The circular economy is a major topic in import-dependant nations like Japan, China or the European Union, where supply security, strengthening domestic value chains and greening economic growth are key concerns. In contrast, extractive economies, mostly in the Global South, provide resources to the world market and thus exhibit inherently linear resource use while struggling for sustainable development. Circularity in resource importing regions could undermine extraction-based development modes, but such effects have rarely been studied yet.

Herein, we analyse economy-wide circularity for all flows of materials, energy, waste and emissions in South Africa, for the year 2017. We advance an established methodology regarding interlinked metals mining, constraints to sustainable biomass cycling, and informal disposal, waste picking and informal and formal reuse. Data were developed from national and international sources, and reviewed and co-produced with national experts in an online workshop series.

Cornerstones of South Africa's biophysical economy in 2017 are a domestic extraction of 875 Mt, low imports of 32 Mt dominated by oil, 170 Mt of exports dominated by coal and metal ores, resulting in 496 Mt of total waste and emissions. Processed material is 917 Mt or 16 t/cap (EU27: 16 t/cap). Materials use for stock-building is very low at 130 Mt (2.3 t/cap). Socioeconomic input cycling is only 2 % [1.4–2.8 %] and ecologically sustainable biomass cycling is only 4 % [3.9–6.1 %], totalling 6 % input circularity. Given the low circularity, we conclude on leverage points for a transformation towards increased circularity to yield socio-economic benefits in a highly unequal society.