儿童死亡率、生育率和贫困:一个反事实的分析

IF 1.5 Q2 EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH Learning Communities-International Journal of Learning in Social Contexts Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI:10.18793/lcj2022.27.05
A. Hyder, Wali Ullah
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引用次数: 0

摘要

家庭规模的扩大会收紧家庭的资源,尤其是那些财富水平较低的家庭。贫穷的五分之一家庭陷入了高儿童死亡率的困境。儿童生存的风险导致高生育率和对儿童的投资很少。将这些家庭从这个恶意陷阱中拉出来的条件已经不存在了。例如,在巴基斯坦,妇女受教育率低,早婚早孕,生育间隔过短等指标令人沮丧。不幸的是,较贫穷五分之一的家庭是国家收入的最小受益者,发展中国家的政策一般是为一般公众设计的,这些政策的好处很少惠及最贫穷的家庭。本文的目的是:(i)通过对五个财富分位数的实证调查,强调整个财富分配中生育行为和儿童死亡率发生率的变化动态;(ii)探讨5岁以下儿童死亡率与生育率之间的因果关系,最后检验一些政策工具的反向效应。为此,本文利用最新的巴基斯坦人口健康调查来研究几个重要的政策变量,以打破贫困、儿童死亡率和高生育率之间的联系。反事实分析表明,在一些变量上略有改善;与女性教育一样,如果目标家庭推迟初次怀孕和增加生育间隔,将大大改变儿童死亡率和生育率。分析结果将有助于干预措施的设计。这种分析还可以为巴纳齐尔收入支助方案、联邦和省妇幼保健部门以及计划生育办公室等以妇女为中心的机构提供指导。
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Child Mortality, Fertility and Poverty: A Counterfactual Analysis
Larger sizes of households tighten the resources of families particularly those in lower wealth quintiles. Households in poorer quintiles are trapped into high child mortality. The risk of child survival leads to high fertility and little investment in children. The conditions to pull these households from this malicious trap are already absent. For instance, the indicators like, women’s low rates of education, early marriages and early pregnancies, and too little birth intervals are very discouraging in Pakistan. Unfortunately, households in poorer quintiles are the least beneficiaries from national revenues and policies in developing countries, in general, are designed for general public and benefit from those policies rarely reach to most needy households. The objectives of this paper are: (i) to emphasize the changing dynamics of fertility behavior and incidence of child mortality across the wealth distribution through an empirical investigation of five wealth quantiles, (ii) to explore the causal relationship between under 5 child mortality and fertility, and finally to examine the counter effect of a few policy instruments. For this purpose, the paper exploits the latest Pakistan Demographic Health Survey to examine few important policy variables to break the nexus between poverty, child mortality and high fertility. The counterfactual analysis suggests marginal improvement in a few variables; like female education, delay in first conception and incremental increase in birth intervals if in targeted households, will significantly change the child mortality and fertility rates. The analysis will be helpful for designing interventions. This analysis can also provide guidelines for women centered institutions like Banazir Income Support Programme, federal and provincial mother and child health departments and family planning offices.
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