评估实时价格预测质量对可持续智能制造需求响应管理的影响

Lingxiang Yun, Lin Li
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摘要

新兴的智能制造技术为复杂制造系统的灵活和自主监测和控制铺平了道路,这有助于实现基于实时价格(RTP)的需求响应管理,以实现可持续性。需求响应管理需要对智能制造系统进行提前调度,因此RTP预测的质量直接影响到需求响应的性能。尽管目前有几个预测评估度量是可用的,但它们的设计目的是显示预测和实际RTP之间的相似性,而这并不一定与需求响应性能相关。因此,在本研究中,通过解决需求响应管理问题而获得的每日能源成本降低作为需求响应绩效的指标。研究了六种常用的评估指标,并研究了它们与能源成本降低的相关性。此外,考虑到需求响应问题的特点,提出了一个新的度量,称为k峰距离,并与其他六个度量进行了比较。案例研究表明,与其他指标相比,拟议指标与能源成本降低的相关性高2到4倍,标准误差仅为标准误差的一半左右。结果表明,该度量能较好地反映需求响应问题的预测质量。
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Assessing the Impacts of Real-Time Price Prediction Quality on Demand Response Management for Sustainable Smart Manufacturing
The emerging smart manufacturing technologies pave the way for flexible and autonomous monitoring and control of complex manufacturing systems, which facilitate the implementation of real-time price (RTP) based demand response management towards sustainability. The demand response management requires scheduling of smart manufacturing systems in advance, and thus the quality of RTP predictions directly impacts the performance of demand response. Although several prediction evaluation metrics are currently available, they are designed to show the similarities between prediction and actual RTP, which are not necessarily related to demand response performance. Therefore, in this study, the daily energy cost reductions obtained by solving a demand response management problem are adopted as an indicator of demand response performance. Six commonly used evaluation metrics are examined, and their correlations with energy cost reductions are investigated. In addition, a new metric called k-peak distance considering the characteristics of the demand response problem is proposed and compared with the other six metrics. The case studies show that the proposed metric has two to four times higher correlation with energy cost reductions and only about half of the standard error compared to other metrics. The results indicate that the proposed metric can better represent the prediction quality in the demand response problem.
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