中国回购市场的细分剖析

X. Xu
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摘要

中国在场外银行间市场和证券交易所进行回购交易。本文研究了2006年12月至2018年6月期间中国外汇和银行间回购利率息差的行为、来源和驱动因素。在调整了不同的日计报价方法后,我将交易所与银行间回购价差分解为两个部分:非存款机构(ndi)的交易所与银行间市场之间的跨市场分割,以及ndi与银行间市场上的存款机构(DIs)之间的市场内交易对手分割。研究发现,1天期回购市场的分割程度更高,差价主要由ndi的跨市场分割驱动,这反映了两种不同的市场机制和交易摩擦阻碍了ndi在较短期限内在两个市场进行有效套利。另一方面,我们发现7天期回购市场的分割程度较低,利差主要由银行间市场中ndi和DIs之间的交易对手分割所驱动,反映出ndi相对于DIs面临更大的交易对手信用和流动性风险。进一步分析揭示了季末效应、货币政策和影子银行活动对中国回购市场跨市场和市场内分割的影响。
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Dissecting the Segmentation of China’s Repo Markets
China repos trade in the over-the-counter interbank market as well as the stock exchange. This paper examines the behaviours, sources, and drivers of the spread between China’s exchange and interbank repo rates from December 2006 to June 2018. After adjusting for different day-count quoting methods, I dissect the exchange to interbank repo spread into two components: cross-market segmentation between exchange and interbank markets for non-depository institutions (NDIs), and within-market counterparty segmentation between NDIs and depository institutions (DIs) in the interbank market. The 1-day repo markets are found to be more segmented, with the spread mainly driven by the cross-market segmentation for NDIs, reflecting the two different market mechanisms and trading frictions that prevent NDIs from effectively arbitraging across the two markets in the shorter tenor. On the other hand, the 7-day repo markets are found to be less segmented, with the spread mainly driven by the counterparty segmentation between NDIs and DIs within the interbank market, reflecting greater counterparty credit and liquidity risks for NDIs relative to DIs. Further analysis uncovers the impacts of quarter-end effect, monetary policies, and shadow banking activities on the cross-market and within-market segmentations in China’s repo markets.
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