The Future Is Now: Security Guarantees for Ukraine

Abstract Without security guarantees, Ukraine will not have a free and secure future. Despite the urgency of the issue, however, no clarity has so far arisen on the nature of security guarantees that might apply, their institutional context or their timeline. Giving Ukraine such guarantees sooner rather than later would send a message to Moscow that the West was in the war for the long haul, and that continuing a losing war was futile. Accordingly, guarantees should be shaped in parallel with Ukraine’s counter-offensive. The best option appears to be a security pact for Ukraine outside the NATO institutional context. While such a pact would not necessarily contemplate NATO membership, it would extend practically comparable assurances to Kyiv through a formalised support structure without leaving it vulnerable in the short term.