Retrospective on VLSI value scaling and lithography

Abstract. In recent decades, the rate of shrinking integrated-circuit components has slowed as challenges accumulate. Yet, in part by virtue of an accelerating rate of cleverness, the end-user value of new semiconductor processes steadily advances. On top of the miniaturization benefits delivered by optical lithography, value is boosted by innovations in wafer processing, mask synthesis, materials and devices, microarchitecture, and circuit design. Focusing on three decades of microprocessor data enables quantification of how innovations from those domains have contributed over time to integrated-circuit “value scaling” in terms of performance, power, and cost. At some point, lateral shrinking will end altogether and the kinds of ingenuity emerging from those domains may provide clues for how very large-scale integration value creation will advance beyond that point.