使用残疾调整生命年来估计饮用水中低水平砷的癌症风险

Hui Zhang, Luobin Wang, Yiyi Wang, Shan Chang
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引用次数: 8

摘要

近年来的研究表明,长期暴露于低浓度砷(<10 μg/L)可能会引起人体健康问题。然而,诱导的癌症风险和多部位癌症之间的差异尚未得到很好的理解。本研究对西北地区XP市饮用水中低水平砷的浓度进行了调查。基于蒙特卡罗模拟和残疾调整生命年(DALYs),对不同年龄组和接触途径进行了健康风险评估。砷含量范围为7.61 ~ 9.25 μg/L,平均值为8.23 μg/L。对于公众,平均总终身癌症风险为3.87 × 10−4,所有年龄组的总DALYs估计为20.58人年。个体平均DALYs损失为3.35 × 10−5 /人年(ppy),是参考值(1.00 × 10−6 ppy)的33.5倍。死亡负担对总疾病负担的贡献要大得多(97.31%),60 - 65岁年龄组的DALYs损失最大。皮肤癌的负荷最大,为2.15 × 10−5 ppy,其次是肺癌(1.20 × 10−5 ppy)。本研究可为XP饮用水风险控制与管理提供参考。
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Using disability-adjusted life years to estimate the cancer risks of low-level arsenic in drinking water
Abstract Recent studies have shown that long-term exposure to low-level arsenic (<10 μg/L) may cause human health problems. However, the induced cancer risks and differences among multisite cancers have not been well-understood. In this study, the concentrations of low-level arsenic in drinking water in XP city, Northwest China were investigated. A health risk assessment was carried out for different age groups and exposure pathways based on Monte Carlo simulations and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The measured arsenic levels were in the range of 7.61–9.25 μg/L with a mean of 8.23 μg/L. For the public, the average total lifetime cancer risk was 3.87 × 10−4, and the total DALYs estimation for all age groups was 20.58 person-year. The average individual DALYs lost was 3.35 × 10−5 per person-year (ppy), which was 33.5 times the reference value (1.00 × 10−6 ppy). The mortality burden had a considerably larger contribution (97.31%) to the total disease burden, and the 60–65-year age group exhibited the largest DALYs lost. Skin cancer exhibited the largest burden of 2.15 × 10−5 ppy, followed by lung cancer (1.20 × 10−5 ppy). This study might be useful for potential strategies of risk control and management in XP drinking water.
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