塞尔维亚COVID-19死亡率的区域分析

I. Marinković
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摘要

由SARS-CoV-2病毒引起的大流行应被视为严重的公共卫生威胁,因为在其存在的头十个月里,全世界有300多万人死亡。根据现有数据,COVID-19大流行造成的死亡率在各国之间存在显著差异,而且在各国内部也存在显著差异。在分析2020年塞尔维亚死亡率大流行的后果时,使用了塞尔维亚共和国统计局公布的人口动态统计的最终数据。研究结果是在所有领土统计行政级别(除定居点级别)提出的。研究表明,这种新疾病造成的死亡人数最高的是该国南部和较大的城市中心(贝尔格莱德、尼斯、克拉古耶瓦茨)。伏伊伏丁那及其所属的地区和直辖市在塞尔维亚拥有最有利的价值。按死亡原因分列的死亡率数据的质量在不同的统计行政级别差异很大,主要是COVID-19作为主要死亡原因的少报。作为大流行对人口总死亡率影响的更可靠指标,超额死亡率表明,2020年普雷塞沃、杰尼察和新帕扎尔的死亡率增幅创历史新高。塞尔维亚北部和南部在COVID-19死亡率方面的差异可能是基于更多的代际接触和更明显的人口迁移,因此可以说,传播率是塞尔维亚不同地区人口死亡率的一个更重要的决定因素,而不是现有医疗保健水平或年龄结构。不同的统计行政级别,主要是少报COVID-19作为主要死亡原因(一个显著的例子是科卢巴拉县)。作为大流行对人口总死亡率影响的更可靠指标,超额死亡率表明,2020年普雷塞沃、杰尼察和新帕扎尔的死亡率增幅创历史新高。一旦病毒传播在社区扎根,该国代际接触较多的地区的感染率会更快。塞尔维亚北部和南部在COVID-19死亡率方面的差异可能是由于代际接触较多和人口迁移更明显。可以说,感染的传播程度是决定塞尔维亚不同地区人口死亡率的一个更重要因素,而不是现有保健水平或年龄结构。
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Regional analysis of COVID-19 mortality in Serbia
The pandemic generated by the SARS-CoV-2 virus should be viewed as a severe public health threat because, in the first ten months of its existence, over 3 million people perished worldwide. According to available data, mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic is markedly different across countries but also within them. In the analysis of the consequences of the mortality pandemic in Serbia in 2020, the final data of vital statistics published by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia were used. The results of the research are presented at all territorial statistical-administrative levels (except the settlement level). The research showed that the highest intensity of deaths due to the new disease is in the south of the country and larger city centers (Belgrade, Nis, Kragujevac). Vojvodina and the districts and municipalities that belong to it have the most favorable values in Serbia. The quality of mortality data by cause of death varies considerably at different statistical-administrative levels, primarily with the underreporting of COVID-19 as the primary cause of death. As a more reliable indicator of the impact of the pandemic on the total mortality of the population, excess mortality indicates a record-high increase in mortality in 2020 in Presevo, Sjenica, and Novi Pazar. The difference between the northern part of Serbia and the southern part in mortality due to COVID-19 is potentially based on more intergenerational contacts and more pronounced population migrations, so it can be stated that the rate of transmission is a more important determinant of mortality in the population of different parts of Serbia, than the level of available health care or age structure. different statistical-administrative levels, primarily with the underreporting of COVID-19 as the leading cause of death (a striking example is the Kolubara district). As a more reliable indicator of the impact of the pandemic on the total mortality of the population, excess mortality indicates a record-high increase in mortality in 2020 in Presevo, Sjenica, and Novi Pazar. Once virus transmission takes root in the community, parts of the country with high intergenerational contacts can see the faster infection rate. The difference between the northern part of Serbia and the southern part in mortality due to COVID-19 is potentially based on higher intergenerational contacts and more pronounced population migrations. It can be stated that the degree of transmission of the infection is a more important determinant of mortality in the population of different parts of Serbia than the level of available health care or age structure.
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