No Beer No Friends: Quantifying the Effect of the Beer Boycott

We study the impact of the boycott on Japanese products, initiated in July 2019, in the Korean beer market. First, we find that sales of Japanese beer decreased by 75 percent on average during the 14-month boycott period in the data. Second, the decrease in Japanese beer sales during the boycott period mostly reflected an increase in domestic beer sales, while demand for outside alternatives has been relatively stable. Third, the post-boycott demand curve of Japanese beer seems to be less elastic than the pre-boycott demand curve. Lastly, the intensity of the boycott effect has remained strong and stable despite a substantial decrease in traditional media coverage since the outbreak of the boycott movement. Our analysis addresses both price endogeneity, as firms may respond to the boycott by adjusting prices, and consumers' substitution to non-Japanese beers from Japanese beers by simulating the post-boycott beer sales had the boycott not occurred. The approach may provide more complete delineation of the effects of a boycott in the market, compared to previous studies that focused only on the boycotted products. Our empirical findings suggest that political tensions can severely distort market outcomes and disturb international trade in an extended period, and that the magnitude and persistence of the boycott may depend on consumer preferences and market conditions such as the existence of close substitutes along with social and political factors.