In this paper, we propose a novel approach to the study of international trade that leads to a measure of country openness that is quite different from the various alternatives proposed by the received literature. In contrast to these, our measure does not use indicators of aggregate trade intensity, trade policy, or trade restrictiveness but relies on a broad systemic viewpoint on the effects of trade. More specifically, it goes beyond direct trade connections and measures a country’s level of integration in the world economy through the full architecture of its second, third, and all other higher-order connections in the world trade network. We apply our methodology to a sample of 204 countries spanning the period from 1962 to 2016 and perform a Bayesian analysis of model selection to identify the most important correlates of growth. The analysis finds that there is a sizable and significant positive relationship between our integration measure and a country’s rate of growth, while that of the aforementioned traditional measures of outward orientation is only minor and statistically insignificant. We perform several sensitivity checks and conclude that our baseline findings are very robust to either different data sets or alternative variations of the integration measure. Overall, this suggests that a network-based approach to measuring country openness may provide a valuable perspective on economic growth.
{"title":"Trade Openness and Growth: A Network-Based Approach","authors":"Georg Duernecker, Moritz Meyer, F. Vega-Redondo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3932027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3932027","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we propose a novel approach to the study of international trade that leads to a measure of country openness that is quite different from the various alternatives proposed by the received literature. In contrast to these, our measure does not use indicators of aggregate trade intensity, trade policy, or trade restrictiveness but relies on a broad systemic viewpoint on the effects of trade. More specifically, it goes beyond direct trade connections and measures a country’s level of integration in the world economy through the full architecture of its second, third, and all other higher-order connections in the world trade network. We apply our methodology to a sample of 204 countries spanning the period from 1962 to 2016 and perform a Bayesian analysis of model selection to identify the most important correlates of growth. The analysis finds that there is a sizable and significant positive relationship between our integration measure and a country’s rate of growth, while that of the aforementioned traditional measures of outward orientation is only minor and statistically insignificant. We perform several sensitivity checks and conclude that our baseline findings are very robust to either different data sets or alternative variations of the integration measure. Overall, this suggests that a network-based approach to measuring country openness may provide a valuable perspective on economic growth.","PeriodicalId":14394,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal","volume":"49 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86699488","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rome and China ruled separate yet immense empires in the second century A.D. With the opening of trade through the silk route, Han China became an essential part of Roman society even though the two empires failed to maintain direct contact. The nature of global supplier routes and the interconnected commercial system that existed during the Roman Empire provides evidence that Rome and China were engaged in trade while failing to understand that the Parthian Empire acted as a barrier hiding information of the existence and scope of each Empire from one another.
{"title":"Rome and the Road to the Distant East","authors":"C. Wright","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3943069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3943069","url":null,"abstract":"Rome and China ruled separate yet immense empires in the second century A.D. With the opening of trade through the silk route, Han China became an essential part of Roman society even though the two empires failed to maintain direct contact. The nature of global supplier routes and the interconnected commercial system that existed during the Roman Empire provides evidence that Rome and China were engaged in trade while failing to understand that the Parthian Empire acted as a barrier hiding information of the existence and scope of each Empire from one another.","PeriodicalId":14394,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83100370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Spanish Abstract: Este documento presenta evidencia sobre los determinantes del crecimiento económico de los sectores mas relevantes en Colombia para el periodo 2005-2015. Se emplea una metodología de análisis de descomposición estructural la cual permite explicar los cambios en los niveles de producción a través de tres canales diferentes: el cambio tecnológico, la sustitución de materias intermedias y la demanda agregada, donde se encuentran las exportaciones. Se aborda de forma específica un análisis de la demanda externa dada por las exportaciones del país para entender la relevancia de este factor en los cambios de producción. Entre los principales resultados encontramos que (i) no hay cambios tecnológicos importantes a nivel agregado, sin embargo, hay sectores específicos dentro del sector agroindustrial y el intensivo en alta tecnología que en este rubro presentan mejoras importantes y (ii) que la mayoría de los incrementos en producción se dan como resultado de incrementos en la demanda final a través del consumo y las exportaciones. English Abstract: This document presents evidence on the determinants of economic growth in the most relevant sectors in Colombia for the period 2005-2015. A structural decomposition analysis methodology is used which makes it possible to explain changes in production levels through three different channels: technological change, substitution of intermediate materials and aggregate demand, where exports are found. An analysis of the external demand given by the country’s exports is specifically addressed to understand the relevance of this factor in production changes. Among the main results, we find that (i) there are no important technological changes at the aggregate level, however, there are specific sectors within the agroindustrial sector and the high-technology intensive sector that present important improvements in this area and (ii) that most of the increases in production are the result of increases in final demand through consumption and exports.
摘要:本文介绍了哥伦比亚2005-2015年期间最相关部门经济增长的决定因素的证据。本文采用结构分解分析方法,通过三个不同的渠道解释生产水平的变化:技术变化、中间材料的替代和出口所在的总需求。本研究的目的是分析墨西哥出口的外部需求,以了解这一因素在生产变化中的相关性。发现(i)主要成果之间存在重大的技术变革一级供给特定部门,但是,有密集的农产工业部门内部和高科技,在本项目中得到显著改善和(ii),大多数生产中增加他们由于需求暴增,最终通过消费和出口。摘要:本文提供了哥伦比亚2005-2015年最相关部门经济增长决定因素的证据。采用了结构分解分析方法,可以通过三个不同的渠道来解释生产水平的变化:技术变化、中间材料的替代和发现出口的综合需求。为了了解这一因素在生产变化中的相关性,专门对国家出口所产生的外部需求进行了分析。书籍主要成果,we find that (i) there are不重要技术changes at the aggregate level然而,there are具体部门within the农产工业部门和高科技intensive部门目前的重要改进in this area and (ii) that most of the gains in production are the公诉gains in最终需求通过消费和出口。
{"title":"El cambio estructural y las exportaciones en la economía colombiana (2005-2015) (Structural Change and Exports in the Colombian Economy (2005-2015))","authors":"Santiago Barbosa Naranjo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3946669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3946669","url":null,"abstract":"Spanish Abstract: Este documento presenta evidencia sobre los determinantes del crecimiento económico de los sectores mas relevantes en Colombia para el periodo 2005-2015. Se emplea una metodología de análisis de descomposición estructural la cual permite explicar los cambios en los niveles de producción a través de tres canales diferentes: el cambio tecnológico, la sustitución de materias intermedias y la demanda agregada, donde se encuentran las exportaciones. Se aborda de forma específica un análisis de la demanda externa dada por las exportaciones del país para entender la relevancia de este factor en los cambios de producción. Entre los principales resultados encontramos que (i) no hay cambios tecnológicos importantes a nivel agregado, sin embargo, hay sectores específicos dentro del sector agroindustrial y el intensivo en alta tecnología que en este rubro presentan mejoras importantes y (ii) que la mayoría de los incrementos en producción se dan como resultado de incrementos en la demanda final a través del consumo y las exportaciones. English Abstract: This document presents evidence on the determinants of economic growth in the most relevant sectors in Colombia for the period 2005-2015. A structural decomposition analysis methodology is used which makes it possible to explain changes in production levels through three different channels: technological change, substitution of intermediate materials and aggregate demand, where exports are found. An analysis of the external demand given by the country’s exports is specifically addressed to understand the relevance of this factor in production changes. Among the main results, we find that (i) there are no important technological changes at the aggregate level, however, there are specific sectors within the agroindustrial sector and the high-technology intensive sector that present important improvements in this area and (ii) that most of the increases in production are the result of increases in final demand through consumption and exports.","PeriodicalId":14394,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal","volume":"112 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83443553","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In a stylized model of multinational firms choosing host locations for their global value chains, host-country governments choose the strength of collective-bargaining rights that allow their workers to receive a share of the resulting quasi-rents. Each government must trade off the direct benefit of stronger bargaining rights against both the effect of chasing multinationals away to rival countries and general-equilibrium effects of discouraging investment in the industry altogether. We find that an increase in globalization in the sense of lower transaction costs has no effect on equilibrium workers' rights, but adding more countries to the global trading system tends, in the limit, to weaken them. Thus, as a matter of theory, the effect of globalization on labor rights is ambiguous. Empirically, we find little evidence that globalization drives movements in labor rights in either direction.
{"title":"Foreign Direct Investment, Global Value Chains, and Labor Rights: No Race-to-the-Bottom?","authors":"J. McLaren, H. Im","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3935463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3935463","url":null,"abstract":"In a stylized model of multinational firms choosing host locations for their global value chains, host-country governments choose the strength of collective-bargaining rights that allow their workers to receive a share of the resulting quasi-rents. Each government must trade off the direct benefit of stronger bargaining rights against both the effect of chasing multinationals away to rival countries and general-equilibrium effects of discouraging investment in the industry altogether. We find that an increase in globalization in the sense of lower transaction costs has no effect on equilibrium workers' rights, but adding more countries to the global trading system tends, in the limit, to weaken them. Thus, as a matter of theory, the effect of globalization on labor rights is ambiguous. Empirically, we find little evidence that globalization drives movements in labor rights in either direction.","PeriodicalId":14394,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal","volume":"83 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81219042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of global value chain on the performance on SME’s mainly based on five research articles which relate to Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam and Sri Lanka published by Asian Development Bank Institute (2021). The said study is based on the empirical findings mainly carried through five research findings that relate to enhancing SME participation in global value chains. As this study was qualitative nature, it has been employed through secondary data and collects data through these five research findings and mainly consists with four countries data and firm level data which relate to SME performance. In terms of measuring the relationship use the descriptive analysis technique. This paper found that the SME’s participation and performance in GVCs limit by several factors and some factors limit in country policies and procedures. Moreover, this paper discussed the importance factors which enhance SMEs performance to participate GVCs. Hence this study has been significantly contributes to the existing knowledge explaining the need of SME’s for the economic growth and global value chain.
{"title":"The Impact of Global Value Chain on the Performance on SMEs Special Reference on East Asian Countries","authors":"Chapa Madubhashani","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3935252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3935252","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of global value chain on the performance on SME’s mainly based on five research articles which relate to Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam and Sri Lanka published by Asian Development Bank Institute (2021). The said study is based on the empirical findings mainly carried through five research findings that relate to enhancing SME participation in global value chains. As this study was qualitative nature, it has been employed through secondary data and collects data through these five research findings and mainly consists with four countries data and firm level data which relate to SME performance. In terms of measuring the relationship use the descriptive analysis technique. This paper found that the SME’s participation and performance in GVCs limit by several factors and some factors limit in country policies and procedures. Moreover, this paper discussed the importance factors which enhance SMEs performance to participate GVCs. Hence this study has been significantly contributes to the existing knowledge explaining the need of SME’s for the economic growth and global value chain.","PeriodicalId":14394,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75215130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates how exports respond to trade protection by studying the U.S.-China trade war in 2018. Using monthly customs data in China from January 2017 to May 2019, we find that the launch of the trade war against Chinese exports by the U.S., on average, reduces Chinese total exports to the U.S. by 8.91%. Further decomposition shows that the reduction in exports is mostly explained by a decrease in quantity, with prices relatively unchanged. Meanwhile, negative trade shocks cause export diversion to countries that are closer and have larger economies, and exports in R&D-intensive, high-skill-labor-intensive, high-labor-income-share, and upstream industries have been diverted even more. Heterogeneous analyses show that industries with comparative advantage, high export growth, large export value, and high elasticity of substitution are more responsive to trade protection.
{"title":"Responses of Exporters to Trade Protectionism: Inference from the U.S.-China Trade War","authors":"Lingduo Jiang, Yi Lu, Hong Song, Guofeng Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3934109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3934109","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates how exports respond to trade protection by studying the U.S.-China trade war in 2018. Using monthly customs data in China from January 2017 to May 2019, we find that the launch of the trade war against Chinese exports by the U.S., on average, reduces Chinese total exports to the U.S. by 8.91%. Further decomposition shows that the reduction in exports is mostly explained by a decrease in quantity, with prices relatively unchanged. Meanwhile, negative trade shocks cause export diversion to countries that are closer and have larger economies, and exports in R&D-intensive, high-skill-labor-intensive, high-labor-income-share, and upstream industries have been diverted even more. Heterogeneous analyses show that industries with comparative advantage, high export growth, large export value, and high elasticity of substitution are more responsive to trade protection.","PeriodicalId":14394,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal","volume":"117 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80011511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pavel Chakraborty, A. Chakrabarti, Chirantan Chatterjee
In 1994, due to environmental concerns, Germany banned a chemical called 'Azo-dyes', a primary input for the leather and textiles firms in India (a key exporter). Exploiting this as a quasi-natural experiment, we examine the effects of this cross-border regulatory change on labor compensation, particularly managerial, for both Indian upstream (dye-producing) and downstream (leather and textile) firms. We find that the regulation increased compensation of managers by 3.7--18% in dye-producing firms compared to other chemical firms. This is due to the combination of changes such as investing in R&D and product churning, due to the ban, which led to this change in within firm labor composition. This increase in overall compensation is driven only by fixed component (wages), consistent with the effects of a long-run shock. We find no such effects for downstream firms. We believe, our study is one of the first to show that just like tariff, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) can also significantly affect within firm labor composition.
{"title":"Cross-Border Environmental Regulation and Firm Labor Demand","authors":"Pavel Chakraborty, A. Chakrabarti, Chirantan Chatterjee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3783621","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3783621","url":null,"abstract":"In 1994, due to environmental concerns, Germany banned a chemical called 'Azo-dyes', a primary input for the leather and textiles firms in India (a key exporter). Exploiting this as a quasi-natural experiment, we examine the effects of this cross-border regulatory change on labor compensation, particularly managerial, for both Indian upstream (dye-producing) and downstream (leather and textile) firms. We find that the regulation increased compensation of managers by 3.7--18% in dye-producing firms compared to other chemical firms. This is due to the combination of changes such as investing in R&D and product churning, due to the ban, which led to this change in within firm labor composition. This increase in overall compensation is driven only by fixed component (wages), consistent with the effects of a long-run shock. We find no such effects for downstream firms. We believe, our study is one of the first to show that just like tariff, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) can also significantly affect within firm labor composition.","PeriodicalId":14394,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85145940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article discusses the current controversy at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on the waiver of Intellectual Property Rights for COVID-19 vaccines and personal protective equipment. Predicated on the North-South divide and the need for access to vaccines and personal protective equipment by developing countries, an analysis of both sides of the WTO contention is undertaken against the background of access to knowledge quadrants namely, availability, visibility, accessibility, and impact. Arguments are framed around the Ubuntu and Utilitarianism which support the notion that no one is safe until we are all safe.
{"title":"COVID-19 Strategic Global North-South Divide: Access to Knowledge Quadrants Imperatives for Granting the WTO Waiver","authors":"Kunle Ola","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3927721","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3927721","url":null,"abstract":"This article discusses the current controversy at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on the waiver of Intellectual Property Rights for COVID-19 vaccines and personal protective equipment. Predicated on the North-South divide and the need for access to vaccines and personal protective equipment by developing countries, an analysis of both sides of the WTO contention is undertaken against the background of access to knowledge quadrants namely, availability, visibility, accessibility, and impact. Arguments are framed around the Ubuntu and Utilitarianism which support the notion that no one is safe until we are all safe.","PeriodicalId":14394,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal","volume":"64 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76840789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economic complexity theory deepens our understanding of export diversification. However, it relies on aggregated data which might disguise important details. In particular, these data do not take information on importers into account even though this information can provide new insights about the pace of economic complexity evolution in a particular economy. The paper introduces these new insights by incorporating more detailed export data into analysis. I find that wealthier economies not only tend to export more sophisticated products, but also sell them to richer destinations. I discuss the case of Russia which seeks to become a more complex economy and gain technological sovereignty by implementing reindustrialization policy. However, Russian complex products rarely conquer richer markets and are better known to Russia’s geographic neighbors. Our findings suggest that such a pattern of reindustrialization might not be promising as long as a higher level of wealth is a concern. The paper claims that even though redesigning industrial policy such that it becomes more conditioned on export outcomes is not a solution to the problem, it is, however, one of its important ingredients.
{"title":"Where you Export Matters","authors":"I. Lyubimov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3947176","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3947176","url":null,"abstract":"Economic complexity theory deepens our understanding of export diversification. However, it relies on aggregated data which might disguise important details. In particular, these data do not take information on importers into account even though this information can provide new insights about the pace of economic complexity evolution in a particular economy. The paper introduces these new insights by incorporating more detailed export data into analysis. I find that wealthier economies not only tend to export more sophisticated products, but also sell them to richer destinations. I discuss the case of Russia which seeks to become a more complex economy and gain technological sovereignty by implementing reindustrialization policy. However, Russian complex products rarely conquer richer markets and are better known to Russia’s geographic neighbors. Our findings suggest that such a pattern of reindustrialization might not be promising as long as a higher level of wealth is a concern. The paper claims that even though redesigning industrial policy such that it becomes more conditioned on export outcomes is not a solution to the problem, it is, however, one of its important ingredients.","PeriodicalId":14394,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82052335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Australia's exports to the People's Republic of China (PRC) are being recast in terms of risk rather than opportunity. Exposure to the PRC market is seen as providing Beijing with coercive leverage that can erode sovereign decision-making in Canberra. Further, because this trade is mostly undertaken by private businesses that are focused on their own profits and not Australia’s broader strategic and national security concerns, public policy intervention aimed at cutting this exposure is touted as both necessary and desirable. Amplifying this view is a campaign of disruption that Beijing has directed at Australia’s exports since May 2020. How unusual is Australia in its export exposure to China and how costly has this exposure proven to be? This paper finds that the scale of Australia’s exposure to its top market is broadly consistent with that of other peer economies. Drawing on the latest available trade data it is then shown that firstly, Beijing’s calculations of its own economic self-interest mean that most of Australia’s big-ticket exports to China continue to flow as before, and secondly, the costs associated with the goods that have been disrupted have been largely mitigated by global markets, including “grey” ones. Given that public policy resources are finite and interventions are not cost-free, and many Australian businesses already have access to effective risk mitigation mechanisms, the case for government to take a more prescriptive approach to business engagement with the PRC is more limited than commonly imagined.
{"title":"Australia's export exposure to China: Assessing the costs of disruption","authors":"J. Laurenceson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3920027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3920027","url":null,"abstract":"Australia's exports to the People's Republic of China (PRC) are being recast in terms of risk rather than opportunity. Exposure to the PRC market is seen as providing Beijing with coercive leverage that can erode sovereign decision-making in Canberra. Further, because this trade is mostly undertaken by private businesses that are focused on their own profits and not Australia’s broader strategic and national security concerns, public policy intervention aimed at cutting this exposure is touted as both necessary and desirable. Amplifying this view is a campaign of disruption that Beijing has directed at Australia’s exports since May 2020. How unusual is Australia in its export exposure to China and how costly has this exposure proven to be? This paper finds that the scale of Australia’s exposure to its top market is broadly consistent with that of other peer economies. Drawing on the latest available trade data it is then shown that firstly, Beijing’s calculations of its own economic self-interest mean that most of Australia’s big-ticket exports to China continue to flow as before, and secondly, the costs associated with the goods that have been disrupted have been largely mitigated by global markets, including “grey” ones. Given that public policy resources are finite and interventions are not cost-free, and many Australian businesses already have access to effective risk mitigation mechanisms, the case for government to take a more prescriptive approach to business engagement with the PRC is more limited than commonly imagined.","PeriodicalId":14394,"journal":{"name":"International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88388305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}