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Trade Openness and Growth: A Network-Based Approach 贸易开放与增长:基于网络的视角
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3932027
Georg Duernecker, Moritz Meyer, F. Vega-Redondo
In this paper, we propose a novel approach to the study of international trade that leads to a measure of country openness that is quite different from the various alternatives proposed by the received literature. In contrast to these, our measure does not use indicators of aggregate trade intensity, trade policy, or trade restrictiveness but relies on a broad systemic viewpoint on the effects of trade. More specifically, it goes beyond direct trade connections and measures a country’s level of integration in the world economy through the full architecture of its second, third, and all other higher-order connections in the world trade network. We apply our methodology to a sample of 204 countries spanning the period from 1962 to 2016 and perform a Bayesian analysis of model selection to identify the most important correlates of growth. The analysis finds that there is a sizable and significant positive relationship between our integration measure and a country’s rate of growth, while that of the aforementioned traditional measures of outward orientation is only minor and statistically insignificant. We perform several sensitivity checks and conclude that our baseline findings are very robust to either different data sets or alternative variations of the integration measure. Overall, this suggests that a network-based approach to measuring country openness may provide a valuable perspective on economic growth.
在本文中,我们提出了一种研究国际贸易的新方法,该方法可以衡量国家开放程度,这与已有文献提出的各种替代方法截然不同。与这些相比,我们的衡量方法不使用总贸易强度、贸易政策或贸易限制的指标,而是依赖于对贸易影响的广泛系统观点。更具体地说,它超越了直接的贸易联系,并通过其在世界贸易网络中的第二、第三和所有其他高阶联系的完整架构来衡量一个国家在世界经济中的一体化水平。我们将我们的方法应用于从1962年到2016年的204个国家的样本,并对模型选择进行贝叶斯分析,以确定最重要的增长相关因素。分析发现,我们的一体化措施与一个国家的增长率之间存在相当大且显著的正相关关系,而上述传统的外向取向措施只是次要的,统计上不显著。我们进行了几次敏感性检查,并得出结论,我们的基线结果对于不同的数据集或集成度量的可选变体都非常稳健。总的来说,这表明以网络为基础的方法来衡量国家开放程度可能为经济增长提供一个有价值的视角。
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引用次数: 2
Rome and the Road to the Distant East 罗马与通往遥远东方之路
Pub Date : 2021-10-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3943069
C. Wright
Rome and China ruled separate yet immense empires in the second century A.D. With the opening of trade through the silk route, Han China became an essential part of Roman society even though the two empires failed to maintain direct contact. The nature of global supplier routes and the interconnected commercial system that existed during the Roman Empire provides evidence that Rome and China were engaged in trade while failing to understand that the Parthian Empire acted as a barrier hiding information of the existence and scope of each Empire from one another.
罗马和中国在公元2世纪统治着各自独立但庞大的帝国。随着丝绸之路贸易的开放,尽管两个帝国未能保持直接联系,但汉中国成为罗马社会的重要组成部分。罗马帝国时期存在的全球供应路线的性质和相互联系的商业体系提供了证据,证明罗马和中国在从事贸易时,没有理解帕提亚帝国作为一个屏障,隐藏了彼此帝国存在和范围的信息。
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引用次数: 0
El cambio estructural y las exportaciones en la economía colombiana (2005-2015) (Structural Change and Exports in the Colombian Economy (2005-2015)) 《哥伦比亚经济的结构变化与出口》(2005-2015)
Pub Date : 2021-10-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3946669
Santiago Barbosa Naranjo
Spanish Abstract: Este documento presenta evidencia sobre los determinantes del crecimiento económico de los sectores mas relevantes en Colombia para el periodo 2005-2015. Se emplea una metodología de análisis de descomposición estructural la cual permite explicar los cambios en los niveles de producción a través de tres canales diferentes: el cambio tecnológico, la sustitución de materias intermedias y la demanda agregada, donde se encuentran las exportaciones. Se aborda de forma específica un análisis de la demanda externa dada por las exportaciones del país para entender la relevancia de este factor en los cambios de producción. Entre los principales resultados encontramos que (i) no hay cambios tecnológicos importantes a nivel agregado, sin embargo, hay sectores específicos dentro del sector agroindustrial y el intensivo en alta tecnología que en este rubro presentan mejoras importantes y (ii) que la mayoría de los incrementos en producción se dan como resultado de incrementos en la demanda final a través del consumo y las exportaciones. English Abstract: This document presents evidence on the determinants of economic growth in the most relevant sectors in Colombia for the period 2005-2015. A structural decomposition analysis methodology is used which makes it possible to explain changes in production levels through three different channels: technological change, substitution of intermediate materials and aggregate demand, where exports are found. An analysis of the external demand given by the country’s exports is specifically addressed to understand the relevance of this factor in production changes. Among the main results, we find that (i) there are no important technological changes at the aggregate level, however, there are specific sectors within the agroindustrial sector and the high-technology intensive sector that present important improvements in this area and (ii) that most of the increases in production are the result of increases in final demand through consumption and exports.
摘要:本文介绍了哥伦比亚2005-2015年期间最相关部门经济增长的决定因素的证据。本文采用结构分解分析方法,通过三个不同的渠道解释生产水平的变化:技术变化、中间材料的替代和出口所在的总需求。本研究的目的是分析墨西哥出口的外部需求,以了解这一因素在生产变化中的相关性。发现(i)主要成果之间存在重大的技术变革一级供给特定部门,但是,有密集的农产工业部门内部和高科技,在本项目中得到显著改善和(ii),大多数生产中增加他们由于需求暴增,最终通过消费和出口。摘要:本文提供了哥伦比亚2005-2015年最相关部门经济增长决定因素的证据。采用了结构分解分析方法,可以通过三个不同的渠道来解释生产水平的变化:技术变化、中间材料的替代和发现出口的综合需求。为了了解这一因素在生产变化中的相关性,专门对国家出口所产生的外部需求进行了分析。书籍主要成果,we find that (i) there are不重要技术changes at the aggregate level然而,there are具体部门within the农产工业部门和高科技intensive部门目前的重要改进in this area and (ii) that most of the gains in production are the公诉gains in最终需求通过消费和出口。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Direct Investment, Global Value Chains, and Labor Rights: No Race-to-the-Bottom? 外国直接投资、全球价值链与劳工权利:不存在逐底竞争?
Pub Date : 2021-10-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3935463
J. McLaren, H. Im
In a stylized model of multinational firms choosing host locations for their global value chains, host-country governments choose the strength of collective-bargaining rights that allow their workers to receive a share of the resulting quasi-rents. Each government must trade off the direct benefit of stronger bargaining rights against both the effect of chasing multinationals away to rival countries and general-equilibrium effects of discouraging investment in the industry altogether. We find that an increase in globalization in the sense of lower transaction costs has no effect on equilibrium workers' rights, but adding more countries to the global trading system tends, in the limit, to weaken them. Thus, as a matter of theory, the effect of globalization on labor rights is ambiguous. Empirically, we find little evidence that globalization drives movements in labor rights in either direction.
在跨国公司为其全球价值链选择东道国的程式化模型中,东道国政府选择集体谈判权的强度,使其工人能够获得由此产生的准租金份额。各国政府必须权衡更强议价权带来的直接好处,以及将跨国公司赶往竞争对手国家的影响,以及完全抑制对该行业投资的一般均衡效应。我们发现,在交易成本较低的意义上,全球化的增加对均衡工人的权利没有影响,但在全球贸易体系中加入更多的国家往往在极限情况下削弱了这些权利。因此,从理论上讲,全球化对劳工权利的影响是模糊的。从经验上看,我们发现很少有证据表明全球化会推动劳工权利朝任何一个方向运动。
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引用次数: 2
The Impact of Global Value Chain on the Performance on SMEs Special Reference on East Asian Countries 全球价值链对中小企业绩效的影响——以东亚国家为例
Pub Date : 2021-10-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3935252
Chapa Madubhashani
The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of global value chain on the performance on SME’s mainly based on five research articles which relate to Indonesia, Thailand, Viet Nam and Sri Lanka published by Asian Development Bank Institute (2021). The said study is based on the empirical findings mainly carried through five research findings that relate to enhancing SME participation in global value chains. As this study was qualitative nature, it has been employed through secondary data and collects data through these five research findings and mainly consists with four countries data and firm level data which relate to SME performance. In terms of measuring the relationship use the descriptive analysis technique. This paper found that the SME’s participation and performance in GVCs limit by several factors and some factors limit in country policies and procedures. Moreover, this paper discussed the importance factors which enhance SMEs performance to participate GVCs. Hence this study has been significantly contributes to the existing knowledge explaining the need of SME’s for the economic growth and global value chain.
本研究的目的是研究全球价值链对中小企业绩效的影响,主要基于亚洲开发银行研究所(2021)发表的与印度尼西亚、泰国、越南和斯里兰卡有关的五篇研究文章。本研究主要通过五项与提升中小企业参与全球价值链相关的研究成果进行实证研究。由于本研究是定性的,因此采用了二手数据,通过这五个研究成果收集数据,主要由四个国家的数据和企业层面的数据组成,这些数据与中小企业绩效有关。在测量关系方面,使用描述性分析技术。研究发现,中小企业在全球价值链中的参与和绩效受到多个因素的限制,部分因素受到国家政策和程序的限制。此外,本文还探讨了提高中小企业参与全球价值链绩效的重要因素。因此,本研究对解释中小企业对经济增长和全球价值链需求的现有知识做出了重大贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Responses of Exporters to Trade Protectionism: Inference from the U.S.-China Trade War 出口商对贸易保护主义的反应:来自中美贸易战的推论
Pub Date : 2021-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3934109
Lingduo Jiang, Yi Lu, Hong Song, Guofeng Zhang
This paper investigates how exports respond to trade protection by studying the U.S.-China trade war in 2018. Using monthly customs data in China from January 2017 to May 2019, we find that the launch of the trade war against Chinese exports by the U.S., on average, reduces Chinese total exports to the U.S. by 8.91%. Further decomposition shows that the reduction in exports is mostly explained by a decrease in quantity, with prices relatively unchanged. Meanwhile, negative trade shocks cause export diversion to countries that are closer and have larger economies, and exports in R&D-intensive, high-skill-labor-intensive, high-labor-income-share, and upstream industries have been diverted even more. Heterogeneous analyses show that industries with comparative advantage, high export growth, large export value, and high elasticity of substitution are more responsive to trade protection.
本文以2018年中美贸易战为研究对象,探讨出口对贸易保护的反应。利用中国2017年1月至2019年5月的月度海关数据,我们发现,美国对中国出口产品发动贸易战,平均使中国对美出口总额减少8.91%。进一步分解可以看出,出口减少的主要原因是数量减少,价格相对不变。与此同时,负面贸易冲击导致出口向距离更近、经济规模更大的国家转移,研发密集型、高技能劳动密集型、高劳动收入份额和上游产业的出口转移更为严重。异质性分析表明,具有比较优势、出口增长率高、出口价值大、替代弹性高的产业对贸易保护的响应更大。
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引用次数: 11
Cross-Border Environmental Regulation and Firm Labor Demand 跨国环境规制与企业劳动力需求
Pub Date : 2021-09-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3783621
Pavel Chakraborty, A. Chakrabarti, Chirantan Chatterjee
In 1994, due to environmental concerns, Germany banned a chemical called 'Azo-dyes', a primary input for the leather and textiles firms in India (a key exporter). Exploiting this as a quasi-natural experiment, we examine the effects of this cross-border regulatory change on labor compensation, particularly managerial, for both Indian upstream (dye-producing) and downstream (leather and textile) firms. We find that the regulation increased compensation of managers by 3.7--18% in dye-producing firms compared to other chemical firms. This is due to the combination of changes such as investing in R&D and product churning, due to the ban, which led to this change in within firm labor composition. This increase in overall compensation is driven only by fixed component (wages), consistent with the effects of a long-run shock. We find no such effects for downstream firms. We believe, our study is one of the first to show that just like tariff, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) can also significantly affect within firm labor composition.
1994年,出于环境考虑,德国禁止了一种名为“偶氮染料”的化学物质,这是印度(主要出口国)皮革和纺织品公司的主要原料。利用这种准自然实验,我们研究了这种跨境监管变化对印度上游(染料生产)和下游(皮革和纺织)公司的劳动补偿,特别是管理方面的影响。我们发现,与其他化工企业相比,染料生产企业的管理人员薪酬增加了3.7- 18%。这是由于禁令导致的研究开发(R&D)投资和产品搅动等变化,导致了企业内部劳动力构成的变化。总体薪酬的增长仅由固定部分(工资)驱动,这与长期冲击的影响是一致的。我们发现下游企业没有这种影响。我们认为,我们的研究是第一个表明,就像关税一样,非关税壁垒(NTBs)也会显著影响企业内部的劳动力构成。
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引用次数: 2
COVID-19 Strategic Global North-South Divide: Access to Knowledge Quadrants Imperatives for Granting the WTO Waiver 2019冠状病毒病全球战略性南北鸿沟:获得知识象限是给予世贸组织豁免的必要条件
Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3927721
Kunle Ola
This article discusses the current controversy at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on the waiver of Intellectual Property Rights for COVID-19 vaccines and personal protective equipment. Predicated on the North-South divide and the need for access to vaccines and personal protective equipment by developing countries, an analysis of both sides of the WTO contention is undertaken against the background of access to knowledge quadrants namely, availability, visibility, accessibility, and impact. Arguments are framed around the Ubuntu and Utilitarianism which support the notion that no one is safe until we are all safe.
本文讨论了目前世界贸易组织(WTO)关于放弃COVID-19疫苗和个人防护装备知识产权的争议。根据南北差距和发展中国家获得疫苗和个人防护装备的需要,在获取知识象限的背景下,即可得性、可见性、可及性和影响,对世贸组织争论的双方进行了分析。争论围绕着Ubuntu和功利主义展开,它们支持这样一种观念,即在我们都安全之前,没有人是安全的。
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引用次数: 1
Where you Export Matters 你在哪里出口很重要
Pub Date : 2021-09-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3947176
I. Lyubimov
Economic complexity theory deepens our understanding of export diversification. However, it relies on aggregated data which might disguise important details. In particular, these data do not take information on importers into account even though this information can provide new insights about the pace of economic complexity evolution in a particular economy. The paper introduces these new insights by incorporating more detailed export data into analysis. I find that wealthier economies not only tend to export more sophisticated products, but also sell them to richer destinations. I discuss the case of Russia which seeks to become a more complex economy and gain technological ­sovereignty by implementing reindustrialization policy. However, Russian complex products rarely conquer richer markets and are better known to Russia’s geographic neighbors. Our findings suggest that such a pattern of reindustrialization might not be promising as long as a higher level of wealth is a concern. The paper claims that even though redesigning industrial policy such that it becomes more conditioned on export outcomes is not a solution to the problem, it is, however, one of its important ingredients.
经济复杂性理论加深了我们对出口多样化的认识。然而,它依赖于可能掩盖重要细节的汇总数据。特别是,这些数据没有考虑到进口商的信息,尽管这些信息可以提供有关特定经济体经济复杂性演变速度的新见解。本文通过将更详细的出口数据纳入分析,介绍了这些新的见解。我发现,较富裕的经济体不仅倾向于出口更复杂的产品,而且还把它们卖给较富裕的目的地。我讨论了俄罗斯的案例,它试图通过实施再工业化政策,成为一个更复杂的经济体,并获得技术主权。然而,俄罗斯的复杂产品很少能征服更富裕的市场,更广为人知的是俄罗斯的地理邻国。我们的研究结果表明,只要关注更高的财富水平,这种再工业化模式可能就不会有希望。这篇论文声称,尽管重新设计产业政策,使其更多地取决于出口结果,并不是解决问题的办法,但它是解决问题的重要因素之一。
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引用次数: 702
Australia's export exposure to China: Assessing the costs of disruption 澳大利亚对中国的出口敞口:评估中断的成本
Pub Date : 2021-09-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3920027
J. Laurenceson
Australia's exports to the People's Republic of China (PRC) are being recast in terms of risk rather than opportunity. Exposure to the PRC market is seen as providing Beijing with coercive leverage that can erode sovereign decision-making in Canberra. Further, because this trade is mostly undertaken by private businesses that are focused on their own profits and not Australia’s broader strategic and national security concerns, public policy intervention aimed at cutting this exposure is touted as both necessary and desirable. Amplifying this view is a campaign of disruption that Beijing has directed at Australia’s exports since May 2020. How unusual is Australia in its export exposure to China and how costly has this exposure proven to be? This paper finds that the scale of Australia’s exposure to its top market is broadly consistent with that of other peer economies. Drawing on the latest available trade data it is then shown that firstly, Beijing’s calculations of its own economic self-interest mean that most of Australia’s big-ticket exports to China continue to flow as before, and secondly, the costs associated with the goods that have been disrupted have been largely mitigated by global markets, including “grey” ones. Given that public policy resources are finite and interventions are not cost-free, and many Australian businesses already have access to effective risk mitigation mechanisms, the case for government to take a more prescriptive approach to business engagement with the PRC is more limited than commonly imagined.
澳大利亚对中华人民共和国(PRC)的出口正在从风险而不是机遇的角度进行重新评估。中国市场的风险敞口被视为为北京方面提供了强制性杠杆,可能侵蚀堪培拉的主权决策。此外,由于这种贸易主要是由专注于自身利润的私营企业进行的,而不是澳大利亚更广泛的战略和国家安全问题,旨在减少这种风险的公共政策干预被吹捧为既必要又可取的。放大这一观点的是,自2020年5月以来,北京方面针对澳大利亚出口发起了一场破坏运动。澳大利亚对中国的出口敞口有多不寻常?这种敞口的成本有多高?本文发现,澳大利亚对其最大市场的敞口规模与其他同类经济体大体一致。根据可获得的最新贸易数据,文章显示,首先,中国政府对自身经济利益的考量意味着,澳大利亚对中国的大部分大宗出口将一如既往地继续流动;其次,与受到干扰的商品相关的成本,在很大程度上已被全球市场(包括“灰色”市场)所缓解。鉴于公共政策资源有限,干预措施并非没有成本,而且许多澳大利亚企业已经可以利用有效的风险缓解机制,因此,政府对与中国的商业接触采取更具规定性的方法的理由比通常想象的要有限。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
International Political Economy: Trade Policy eJournal
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