Chapter Nine: Sub-Saharan Africa

In West Africa, tentative improvements in the region’s security achieved in recent years are now either at risk or are being rolled back. Jihadist activity is again on the rise, notably in Gulf of Guinea countries, while coups and insurrections have highlighted continued problems with civil-military relations. Conflict continued in the Eastern DRC, and in September an agreement was signed enabling the intervention of armed forces from East African Community (EAC) states. An initial force of Kenyan troops landed at Goma in early November; it has been reported that the Kenyan contingent alone could number up to 900. Though a ceasefire was signed between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan forces at the end of the year, in 2022 Ethiopia more than quadrupled its defence budget from USD0.38bn to USD1.58bn amid the return to conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front. As a result, growth in East African defence spending in 2022 was faster than in other sub-regions. Combined with consistent spending in Tanzania and a 2020 jump in Uganda’s defence budget, this means that the sub-region now accounts for 25.1% of total regional spending, up from 11.0% in 2010. Nigeria’s budget has grown significantly in recent years, from NGN594bn (USD1.83bn) in 2019 to NGN1.14 trillion (USD2.78bn) in 2022, averaging 16% nominal growth between 2020 and 2022. However, the budget has been stagnant in real terms, and accounted for between 0.5% and 0.6% of GDP, well below the regional average of 1.5%. South Africa retains the largest defence budget in sub-Saharan Africa, but the country’s share of regional spending has fallen considerably over the last decade. In 2011, South African spending accounted for 27% of the total for sub-Saharan Africa but this proportion has declined every year since, falling to just 15% in 2022. Two decades of underfunding have left the South African National Defence Force in a parlous state. Nevertheless, it has sustained contingents in the DRC and Mozambique and some border patrols. The air force has faced significant challenges in generating operational capability, but a new support contract for the Gripen has enabled the start of a process to rebuild air combat capability.