罗马尼亚人口迁移的跨区域面板分析

I. Condratov
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究的主要目的是实现罗马尼亚发展地区劳动力移民建模因素的宏观经济分析。为了实现这一目标,该研究基于宏观经济模型的发展,通过解释变量确定了由八个发展区域组成的面板内劳动力移民的主要建模因素,并借助国家统计局提供的1990-2016年期间的数据进行了分析。考虑到文献的趋势和一些实证研究的结果,我们建立了面板型模型,根据罗马尼亚发展地区的统计数据,估计劳动力移民的主要建模因素。计量经济学分析是基于使用R Studio软件包的面板模型的估计。我们考虑了以下假设:罗马尼亚八个发展区域的人口移民有一些具体的决定性因素;高中和大学毕业生人数、失业率和通货膨胀率定义的变量对移民人数有显著的正影响;名义平均每月净收入、平均预期寿命和国内生产总值定义的变量对移民人数有显著的负面影响。
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A Cross-Region Panel Analysis of the Migration in Romania
The main objective of this research is to realize a macroecnomic analisys of modeling factors for labour force emigration at the level of development regions from Romania. In order to achieve this objective, the research is based on macroeconomic models development witch identifies, through explanatory variables, the main modelating factors of labour force emigration within a panel that comprises the eight development regions, analised with the help of data offered by National Institute of Statistics for the period 1990-2016. Taking into account the trends from the literature and the results of some empirical studies, we have built panel type models that estimate, based on statistical data for development regions of Romania, the main modelating factors of labour force emigration. The econometric analysis was based on the estimation of a panel model using the R Studio software package. We took into consideration the following hypotheses: There are specific defining elements regarding emigration of people from the eight development regions of Romania; The variables defined by number of graduates from high schools and colleges, unemployment rate and inflation rate have a significant positive influence over the number of emigrants; The variables defined by nominal average monthly net earning, average life expectancy and gross domestic product have a significant negative influence over the number of emigrants.
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