哥伦比亚制造业企业盈利能力的决定因素:汇率还是结构?

N. Griffin
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引用次数: 7

摘要

过去几年实际汇率的升值被认为是近年来哥伦比亚制造业表现疲弱的主要驱动因素之一。本文考察了2000年至2012年间实际汇率、外部和国内需求以及结构变化对哥伦比亚制造业企业盈利能力的影响。虽然出口密集型企业在实际汇率升值的情况下利润增长较低,但我们没有发现强有力的证据表明实际升值对制造业企业的盈利能力产生了平均负面影响;相反,我们发现,随着哥伦比亚制造业企业变得更加以国内为导向,实际升值可能通过降低进口投入的成本来增加企业的盈利能力。与此同时,一些结构性变化(与委内瑞拉的贸易中断和来自中国的贸易竞争加剧有关)似乎部分解释了2008年以来制造业的疲软。
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Determinants of Firm Profitability in Colombia's Manufacturing Sector: Exchange Rate or Structural?
The appreciation of the real exchange rate over the past several years is considered one of the key drivers behind the weak performance of Colombia’s manufacturing sector in recent years. This paper examines the effects of the real exchange rate, external and domestic demand, and structural changes on firms’ profitability in Colombia’s manufacturing sector between 2000 and 2012. While export intensive companies have suffered lower profit growth with real exchange rate appreciation, we find no strong evidence that real appreciation has, on average, negatively affected the profitability of manufacturing firms; on the contrary, we find that real appreciation may have increased firms’ profitability by reducing the cost of imported inputs as Colombian manufacturing firms become more domestically oriented. At the same time, some structural changes (related to trade disruption with Venezuela and increased trade competition from China) seem to partially explain the weakness of the manufacturing sector since 2008.
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