评估肯尼亚农村马赛牧民的气候变化适应战略

IF 0.6 Q4 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Journal of Rural and Community Development Pub Date : 2016-12-08 DOI:10.12691/AJRD-4-6-1
A. Bobadoye, W. Ogara, G. Ouma, J. Onono
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引用次数: 11

摘要

本研究的目的是评估肯尼亚干旱半干旱地区马赛牧民对气候变化的适应和应对策略,并确定可行的适应方案,以减少气候变化对肯尼亚干旱半干旱地区马赛牧民的影响。本研究采用深度访谈法、焦点小组讨论法、关键信息者访谈法等多种数据收集技术,对研究区农户的适应策略进行了评估,并确定了可行的适应方案。该研究使用的降雨数据也从肯尼亚气象局(KMS)收集,并用于标准降水指数(SPI)分析。利用SPI对1970 - 2013年研究区干旱严重程度进行了分析。SPI设计用于量化多时间尺度的降水亏缺。结果表明,干旱是影响研究区畜牧业的主要气候挑战。SPI结果显示,2000-2011年有6年(2000、2003、2004、2007、2008和2011年)SPI值为负值,近年来该区干旱发生率有所增加。2000年也是本研究记录的最干旱年份,SPI值为-3.09。该研究还表明,马赛牧民已经有许多适应措施来应对极端气候的影响。然而,过去几年干旱事件的增加正在削弱它们的复原力。本研究发现,马赛牧民采用的大多数适应和应对策略都是自主的,不太可能建立牧民生计和生态系统的复原力,以应对21世纪预计的气候变化的幅度和规模。该研究确定了适应战略,如有效的预警系统、集水、快速的基础设施发展、鼓励粮食银行和合作社、建设和装备学校、移民、牲畜多样化和儿童教育,这些都是长期的、无悔的适应选择,可以增强肯尼亚干旱和半干旱地区马赛牧民对气候变化及其极端情况的适应能力。
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Assessing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies among rural Maasai Pastoralist in Kenya
The aim of this study is to assess adaptation and coping strategies of Maasai pastoralist to climate change and identify viable adaptation options to reduce the impact of climate change among Maasai pastoralist in the arid and semi-arid (ASALS) in Kenya. The study was carried out in Kajiado County and multiple data collection techniques such as in-depth interview with 305 households, focus group discussion, and key informant interview were used to assess adaptation strategies of pastoralist household and identify viable adaptation options for the study area. Rainfall data used for the study was also collected from Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS) and used for standard precipitation index (SPI) analysis. SPI was used to analyze drought severity in the study area between 1970 and 2013. SPI was designed to quantify precipitation deficit for multiple time scale. Results showed that drought is the major climatic challenge affecting pastoralist in the study area. The SPI result showed increase in drought occurrence in Kajiado County in recent years with six years (2000, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008 and 2011) having negative SPI values between 2000-2011. The year 2000 was also the driest year recorded in the study with an SPI value of -3.09. The study also showed that Maasai pastoralists already have many adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate extremes. However, increase in drought occurrence in the last few years is reducing their resilience. This study observed that most of the adaptation and coping strategies adopted by Maasai pastoralist are autonomous and are unlikely to build resilience of pastoralist livelihoods and ecosystems to cope with the projected magnitude and scale of climate change in the 21st Century. The study identified adaptation strategies such as effective early warning system, water harvesting, rapid infrastructural development, encouraging table banking and cooperative societies, Building and equipping schools, migration, livestock diversification and child education as long term no regret adaptation option that can enhance resilience of Maasai pastoralist to climate change and its extremes in the arid and semi arid lands of Kenya.
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