透视2017年9月Elbląg(波兰)的洪水

R. Konieczny, I. Pińskwar, Z. Kundzewicz
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引用次数: 5

摘要

2017年9月18日上午,波兰北部城市Elbląg的中心被库米拉河迅速上涨的水位淹没,造成了该市相当大的破坏和混乱。本文提供了这一事件的信息,它是由持续两天的强降水引起的。我们通过分析温度、降水和强降水的变化,考察了洪水灾害观测和预测中的气候轨迹,从而对这一个别事件进行了透视。我们还研究了洪水风险的非气候因素,如空间发展和河流治理。此外,我们还提出了一个问题,即旨在减少洪水风险的行动,主要是通过库米拉河集水区的结构性防御,是否真的能降低Elbląg的洪水风险。我们还提供了更多关于波兰减少洪水风险的一般性评论,主要基于技术措施,我们揭示了波兰当前洪水风险管理系统的缺点。在社会意识中,结构性防洪策略已成为波兰减少洪水影响方法的思维规范,但这并不总是有助于减少当地或全国的洪水损失。我们参考了其他城市为应对强降水造成的城市洪水做好准备的一些好例子。
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The September 2017 flood in Elbląg (Poland) in perspective
On the morning of 18 September 2017, the center of the city of Elbląg in northern Poland was inundated by the rapidly rising waters of the Kumiela River, resulting in considerable damage and chaos in the city. The present paper provides information about this event, which was caused by intense precipitation lasting two days. We put this individual event in perspective by examining the climate track in the observation and projection of flood hazard through analyzing changes in temperature, precipitation and intense precipitation. We also examine the non-climatic factors of flood risk, such as spatial development and river regulation. Further, we pose the question of whether actions aimed at flood risk reduction, predominantly by way of structural defenses in the catchment of the Kumiela River, really reduce the flood risk in Elbląg. We also offer more general remarks pertaining to flood risk reduction in Poland, primarily based on technical measures, and we unveil the shortcomings of the current flood risk management system in Poland. In the social consciousness, the structural flood defense strategy has become the norm of thinking in terms of methods for reducing the effects of floods in Poland, but this does not always contribute to reducing flood damage either locally or nationally. We refer to some good examples of preparedness for urban inundations caused by heavy precipitation in other cities.
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