汇率制度选择对国家经济增长的影响:哪一种锚定货币引领21世纪

Muhammad Naveed Jamil
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引用次数: 14

摘要

本研究提供了195个国家汇率安排的综合货币史;汇率制度对1961 - 2020年各国经济增长和宏观经济稳定的影响。采用新的外汇制度衡量标准,并控制高、中上、中等和中下经济体的收入水平;本研究采用广义变动法(GMM),通过人均GDP、GDP增长、通货膨胀和对外贸易考察汇率制度对经济和宏观经济稳定的影响。美元以极高的利润率主导着世界货币。世界各国都希望稳定汇率,减少外汇限制和货币影响。我们发现,后布雷顿森林体系从固定管理向灵活管理的转变:汇率制度的选择与国家经济增长之间存在着密切的关系。政策影响是显而易见的;汇率安排的选择对国家的长期增长没有影响,美元、英镑、欧元、人民币、法国法郎、德国马克和一篮子货币的汇率锚定货币对不同收入水平的国家的增长有非常显著的影响。建议人民币可能考虑替代世界锚货币,并制定新的汇率控制措施。中央银行可能会对发达国家的债券、安全资产以及为克服外汇管制有效性下降而采用的多种货币挂钩制度感到放心。
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Impact the choice of Exchange Rate Regime on country Economic Growth: Which anchor currency leading the 21st Century
This study provides a comprehensive currencies history of the exchange rate arrangement of 195 countries; exchange rate regime impacts on countries' growth and macroeconomic stability period of 1961 to 2020. New measurements of foreign exchange regimes and under controlling the income level of high, upper-middle, middle, and lower-middle economies; This Study adopt Generalized Method of Movements (GMM) to investigate the impact of exchange rate regimes on the economies and macro-economic stability through Per Capita GDP, GDP growth, Inflation and Foreign Trade. The U.S. Dollar dominated the currency in world with a high margin. World countries desire to stabilize exchange rates, reduce exchange restrictions and currencies influence. We find that post Bretton woods transition from fixed to flexible management: Strong relations exist among the choice of exchange rate regime and countries growth. Policy implications are clear; the choice of exchange rate arrangement prevails no impact showing on the long-term countries growth, exchange rate anchor currencies of US Dollar, British Sterling Pound, Euro, Chinese Yuan, French franc, Deutschmark, and Basket currencies have a highly significant impact on countries growth of different income level. Suggest Chinese Yuan may consider alternate anchor currency for World and new measure of exchange rate controls developed. Central banks may be secure advanced country bonds, safe assets, and multi-currencies pegged systems adopted for the reserve to overcome the declining effectiveness of exchange controls.
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期刊介绍: Journal of environmental science and economics (JESCAE), ISSN: 2832-6032 is an open access peer-reviewed journal that considers articles and reviews articles on all aspects of environmental economics. Aim and Scope Journal of Environmental Science and Economics is an international scholarly refereed research journal that aims to promote the theory and practice of environmental economics, Sustainability research, technological innovation, and economics. A broad outline of the journal''s scope includes; peer-reviewed original research articles, case, and technical reports, reviews and analyses papers, short communications and notes to the editor, in interdisciplinary information on the practice and status of research in environmental science, sustainability, technological innovations, and economics. The main aspects of research areas include, but are not limited to; Environmental pollution control and abatement technology, Sustainable and economic Development, sustainable consumption and Sustainability, Environmental and sustainability assessment, transport and fate of pollutants in the environment, concentrations and dispersion of wastes in air, water, and non-point sources pollution, atmospheric pollutants and trace gases, environmental impact assessment, industrial ecology, ecological and human risk assessment; improved energy management and auditing efficiency and environmental standards and criteria.
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