{"title":"行为启发式在首次代币发行估值和投资中的应用","authors":"Maxwell Stanley","doi":"10.31585/JBBA-2-1-(7)2019","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Blockchain projects have seen a rush of investment in the form of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) in 2016 and 2017, yet little is understood about how to valuate these projects. This research explored the application of behavioural heuristics to ICO valuation and investing. Identified were six variables that may impact investment decision making due to key behavioural biases. These variables - coin value, market capitalisation, ease of understanding, market sentiment, maximum ICO bonus level, and pre ICO social media levels - were analysed using Pearson’s Correlation against return on investment (ROI). The data was collected from numerous ICO websites and Twitter. Fundamental analysis was taken from Coincheckup due to it being a major source of information for many retail investors and using a well-defined methodology. Sentiment data was collected from Twitter and assessed using Crimson Hexagon’s social sentiment analysis tool. Ease of understanding was evaluated using AWS Blockchain business canvas. All information was compiled into a single dataset and the top 47 projects in terms of ROI were utilised for this research. Ease of understanding was found to be significantly correlated with ROI. Ease of understanding was then combined with fundamental analysis to develop a hybrid model of evaluation for cryptocurrency projects. This model substantially outperformed fundamental analysis alone, with a 33.6% improvement on ROI. In conclusion, current methods of fundamental analysis for blockchain projects are an inadequate method for capturing their full potential future value. Investors lacking appropriate tools and with limited knowledge and experience - along with the relatively recent advent of cryptocurrencies - are being influenced by behavioural factors such as ease of understanding. 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引用次数: 6
摘要
2016年和2017年,区块链项目以首次代币发行(ico)的形式出现了投资热潮,但人们对如何评估这些项目知之甚少。本研究探讨了行为启发式在ICO估值和投资中的应用。由于关键的行为偏差,确定了可能影响投资决策的六个变量。这些变量——币价值、市值、易理解程度、市场情绪、ICO最高奖金水平和ICO前的社交媒体水平——使用Pearson’s Correlation against investment return (ROI)进行分析。这些数据是从众多ICO网站和Twitter上收集的。基本面分析来自Coincheckup,因为它是许多散户投资者的主要信息来源,并使用了明确的方法。情绪数据是从Twitter上收集的,并使用Crimson Hexagon的社会情绪分析工具进行评估。使用AWS区块链业务画布评估易于理解性。所有信息被汇编成一个单一的数据集,在投资回报率方面排名前47位的项目被用于这项研究。易理解性与ROI显著相关。然后,将易于理解与基础分析相结合,开发了一种用于加密货币项目评估的混合模型。该模型的表现明显优于单独的基本面分析,ROI提高了33.6%。总而言之,目前区块链项目的基础分析方法不足以捕捉其全部潜在的未来价值。缺乏适当工具、知识和经验有限的投资者,以及相对较新出现的加密货币,正受到易理解性等行为因素的影响。因此,投资者和企业家都必须考虑到这些因素。
The Application of Behavioural Heuristicsto Initial Coin Offerings Valuation and Investment
Blockchain projects have seen a rush of investment in the form of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) in 2016 and 2017, yet little is understood about how to valuate these projects. This research explored the application of behavioural heuristics to ICO valuation and investing. Identified were six variables that may impact investment decision making due to key behavioural biases. These variables - coin value, market capitalisation, ease of understanding, market sentiment, maximum ICO bonus level, and pre ICO social media levels - were analysed using Pearson’s Correlation against return on investment (ROI). The data was collected from numerous ICO websites and Twitter. Fundamental analysis was taken from Coincheckup due to it being a major source of information for many retail investors and using a well-defined methodology. Sentiment data was collected from Twitter and assessed using Crimson Hexagon’s social sentiment analysis tool. Ease of understanding was evaluated using AWS Blockchain business canvas. All information was compiled into a single dataset and the top 47 projects in terms of ROI were utilised for this research. Ease of understanding was found to be significantly correlated with ROI. Ease of understanding was then combined with fundamental analysis to develop a hybrid model of evaluation for cryptocurrency projects. This model substantially outperformed fundamental analysis alone, with a 33.6% improvement on ROI. In conclusion, current methods of fundamental analysis for blockchain projects are an inadequate method for capturing their full potential future value. Investors lacking appropriate tools and with limited knowledge and experience - along with the relatively recent advent of cryptocurrencies - are being influenced by behavioural factors such as ease of understanding. It is therefore important that investors and entrepreneurs alike take such factors into consideration.