中国煤炭消费与经济增长协整关系的区域比较研究

Zhaoxiang Zhang, Xiaosong Wang, Xiaoqian Song
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引用次数: 1

摘要

本文首先运用协整理论和时间序列截面数据模型对中国东、中、西部地区煤炭消费与经济增长的协整关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明,东部地区煤炭消费与经济增长之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系,即经济增长与煤炭消费之间存在单向关系。在中国中部地区,长期的双向因果关系和短期的双向因果关系并存。但西部地区存在长期协整关系,短期因果关系不成立。然后结合中国经济增长、能源和煤炭消费数据,得出煤炭消费与经济增长的关系因经济发展水平和运行机制的不同而存在显著差异的结论。最后,提出了促进中国各地区能源与经济协调发展的政策建议。
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The Regional Comparison Study of Co-integration Relationship between China's Coal Consumption and Its Economic Growth
This paper uses co-integration theory and time series cross-section data model to empirically study cointegration relationship between China¡¯s coal consumption and economic growth in eastern, middle and western regions of China firstly. The research results show that there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in the eastern region, this is a unidirectional relationship from economic growth to coal consumption. In middle region of China the obvious bidirectional long-term causal relationship and the bidirectional short-term causal relationship co-exist. However, there is a long-term co-integration relation in western region and the short-term causality is not tenable. And then combined the data of economic growth, energy and coal consumption in China, we conclude that relationship between coal consumption and economic growth is significantly different among various regions because of the level of economic development and its operation mechanism. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward to promote the coordination development of energy and economy in various regions of China.
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