融资和投资活动之间的相互作用会对通货膨胀和汇率产生不同的影响吗?

Oghenovo A. Obrimah
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引用次数: 7

摘要

type="main" xml:lang="en">我发现,在尼日利亚有管理的浮动汇率制度的背景下,旨在稳定汇率的政策不允许直接以通胀为目标。然而,尽管存在这一制约因素(这是宏观经济理论所预测并与之一致的),尼日利亚经济内部融资和投资活动之间的相互作用导致通货膨胀水平下降,这可追溯到与进口有关的活动所促进的价格替代战略。尽管投资融资需求的变化对未来实现通货膨胀和汇率有不同的影响,但通货膨胀水平的下降还是实现了;也就是说,加剧政策约束。我的研究结果提供的证据表明,虽然采用有管理的浮动汇率或混合汇率制度使直接的通胀目标变得困难,但在这些经济体中,汇率稳定、价格稳定和较低通胀水平(相对于某些起点)的结合仍然是可以实现的。
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Can Interactions between Financing and Investment Activities Have Dissimilar Effects on Inflation and Exchange Rates?
type="main" xml:lang="en"> I find that policies targeted at stabilizing exchange rates within the context of Nigeria's managed floating exchange rate regime have not allowed for direct inflation targeting. In spite of this constraint, which is predicted by and consistent with macroeconomic theory, however, interactions between financing and investment activities within the Nigerian economy have resulted in a decrease in inflation levels that is traceable to price substitution strategies facilitated by import-related activities. This decrease in inflation levels has been realized in spite of the fact that changes in the demand for investment financing have dissimilar effects on future realizations of inflation and exchange rates; that is, exacerbate policy constraints. My findings provide evidence that while the adoption of managed floating or hybrid exchange rate regimes renders direct inflation targeting difficult, the combination of exchange rate stability, price stability, and lower inflation levels (relative to some origin point) remains achievable in such economies.
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