Ilaria Masiero, Rodrigo Schneider, A. de la Torre, A. Ize, Marcus Gerardus L. Nascimento, K. Becker, Mario Jorge Cardoso Mendonca, Marco A. Badilla Maroto, Cristian Crespo
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引用次数: 2
摘要
摘要:本文基于巴西的证据，估计了警察对犯罪的因果影响。为了解决反向因果关系，我认为在2014年国际足联世界杯(FIFA World Cup)期间，在圣保罗(o Paulo)几个与比赛有关的地点附近建立一支特别警察部队，加强监视，是一个自然的实验。为了更好地隔离警务的具体影响，我考虑了比赛可能影响犯罪的不同方式，即通过球迷集中和自愿丧失行为能力。差异中的差异估计表明，警力增加导致犯罪活动显著减少。我对犯罪-警察弹性的估计(- 0.37)与以前的研究数据接近，这表明这种效应在各种环境中都很强大，即使在高犯罪率、弱制度的环境中也保持稳定，比如巴西。
The Effect of Police on Crime: Evidence from the 2014 World Cup in São Paulo
ABSTRACT:I estimate the causal impact of police on crime, based on evidence from Brazil. To tackle reverse causality, I consider as a natural experiment the creation of a special police unit to intensify surveillance around a few tournament-related locations in São Paulo during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. To better isolate the specific impact of policing, I account for different ways in which the tournament may affect crime, namely, via fan concentration and voluntary incapacitation. Difference-in-differences estimates reveal that increased police presence leads to significant reductions in criminal activity. My estimate of the crime-police elasticity (−0.37) is close to figures obtained in previous studies, suggesting that this effect is robust across settings and remains stable even in a high-crime, weak-institutions context, as in the case of Brazil.
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