在欧洲解体进程加剧的风险背景下,意大利退出的前景

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摘要

分析了意大利退出欧盟的风险。意大利是欧盟最强大的经济体之一,对欧盟的进程有着巨大的政治影响力。因此,这个国家可能退出欧盟,可能会对欧洲一体化的未来产生灾难性的经济和政治后果。本文对意大利政治家长期讨论的所谓“意大利退出”威胁的可能性进行了研究。此外,还发现了避免意大利退出威胁的方法和可能性,以及在整个欧洲特别是意大利发展解体进程的情况下加强欧洲团结的方法和可能性。意大利退出欧盟的可能性被定义为低,但概述了一些可能增加意大利未来退出欧盟风险的负面趋势。意大利日益增长的欧洲怀疑主义情绪及其对该国外交政策以及意大利与布鲁塞尔欧盟中央机构之间关系的影响被观察到。本文考虑了欧洲怀疑论者和右翼民粹主义者中最具影响力的政党及其在意大利议会和政府中的活动。预测了疑欧党派进一步活动的前景及其对意大利和欧盟政策的潜在影响。事实证明,意大利疑欧派可能是欧洲最危险的,因为他们不仅在国内,而且在欧洲层面都很受欢迎,他们有能力团结其他欧洲国家的右翼激进政党,他们雄心勃勃地想在欧盟委员会占据关键职位,他们与俄罗斯的关系也很活跃。本文分析了避免意大利退出欧盟的最灾难性情景的可能方法。
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PROSPECTS OF ITALEXIT IN THE CONTEXT OF RISKS OF STRENGTHENING DISINTEGRATION PROCESSES IN EUROPE
The risks of Italy's withdrawal from the European Union (Italexit) are analyzed. Italy has one of the most powerful economies in the European Union and a great political influence on the processes in the EU. Therefore, the possible exit of this country from the Union could have catastrophic economic and political consequences for the future of European integration. The probability of the threat of the so-called Italexit, which has been discussed by the Italian politicians for a long time, is researched. In addition, the ways and possibilities of avoiding the threat of Italexit, as well as strengthening European solidarity despite the development of disintegration processes in Europe in general and in Italy in particular, are discovered. The probability of Italexit is defined as low, but some negative trends that may increase the risks of Italy's exit from the EU in the future are outlined. The growing sentiments of euroscepticism in Italy and their impact on the country's foreign policy and on relations between Italy and the EU's central institutions in Brussels are observed. The most influential parties of Eurosceptics and right-wing populists and their activities in the Italian parliament and government are considered. The prospects for further activities of Eurosceptic parties and their potential impact on the policy of Italy and the EU are forecasted. It is proved that Italian Eurosceptics are potentially the most dangerous in Europe because of their popularity not only at the national but also at the European level, their ability to unite right-wing radical parties from other European countries, their ambitions to occupy key positions in the European Commission and their active ties with Russia. The possible ways to avoid the most catastrophic scenarios of Italy's exit from the EU are analyzed.
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