建立一个综合框架,对遭受地震和海啸危害的沿海建筑进行风险评估

Cláudia Reis , Mário Lopes , Maria Ana Baptista , Stéphane Clain
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引用次数: 3

摘要

世界人口的空间分布是不平衡的,大约40%的人口密度生活在沿海地区。在人口指标和城市发展速度方面,这一趋势预计将继续下去,因为许多沿海城市位于地震和海啸易发地区,并通过非正式和未经规划的住区建造,使其人口和资产暴露于这种危险之中。最近的构造引发的事件提高了人们对级联地震和海啸威胁的认识,并突出了考虑到两者累积效应的结构设计标准的缺乏。由于受到地面运动的影响,这些结构的阻力可能会降低,并成为支撑即将到来的海啸的残余或不存在,这意味着对风险的低估。风险管理可以从加强自然灾害和工程实践者之间的联系、将科学和工业联系起来以及促进风险分析人员和决策者之间的对话中受益。受一个位于海啸易发地区的国际规模深水港的扩建计划的激励,对进行多重风险评估所需的工作和尚未克服的挑战进行了反思,以强调将安全要求与财务和生态问题结合起来的挑战。提出了一种基于概念的跨学科方法,以支持不确定性意识,系统和知情的决策。
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Towards an integrated framework for the risk assessment of coastal structures exposed to earthquake and tsunami hazards

The spatial distribution of the world population is uneven, with a density of about 40% living in coastal regions. The trend is expected to continue in both demographic indicators and urban development rate, being many coastal cities in seismic- and tsunami-prone regions and built through informal and unplanned settlements, exposing their population and assets to such hazards. Recent tectonic-triggered events raised awareness of the cascading earthquake and tsunami threat and highlighted the paucity of structural design criteria considering the cumulative effects of both. By being exposed to the ground-motion, the structures’ resistance may decrease and become residual/non-existent to support the incoming tsunami, implying an underestimation of the risk.

Risk management can benefit from reinforcing the ties between natural hazards and engineering practitioners, linking science and industry, and promoting dialogue between risk analysts and policy-makers. Motivated by the expansion plans of an internationally-sized deep-water port located in a tsunami-prone region, a reflection on the work needed to perform a multi-risk assessment and the challenges yet to overcome is introduced to emphasize the challenge of combining safety requirements with financial and ecologic concerns. A conceptual interdisciplinary-based methodology is proposed to support uncertainty-aware, systematic and informed decisions.

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