Applying machine learning methods to predict the hospital re-admission within 30 days of total hip arthroplasty and hemiarthroplasty

Background

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) and hemiarthroplasty are common treatments for severe hip joint disease. To predict the probability of re-admission after discharge when patients are hospitalized will support providing appropriate health education and guidance.

Methods

The research aims to use logistic regression (LR), decision trees (DT), random forests (RF), and artificial neural networks (ANN) to establish predictive models and compare their performances on re-admissions within 30 days after THA or hemiarthroplasty. The data of this study includes patient demographics, physiological measurements, disease history, and clinical laboratory test results.

Results

There were 508 and 309 patients in the THA and hemiarthroplasty studies respectively from September 2016 to December 2018. The accuracies of the four models LR, DT, RF, and ANN in the THA experiment are 94.3%, 93.2%, 97.3%, and 93.9%, respectively. In the hemiarthroplasty experiment, the accuracies of the four models are 92.4%, 86.1%, 94.2%, and 94.8%, respectively. Among these, we found that the RF model has the best sensitivity and ANN model has the best area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) score in both experiments.

Conclusions

The THA experiment confirmed that the performance of the RF model is better than the other models. The key factors affecting the prognosis after THA surgery are creatinine, sodium, anesthesia duration, and dialysis. In the hemiarthroplasty experiment, the ANN model showed more accurate results. Poor kidney function increases the risk of hospital re-admission. This research highlights that RF and ANN model perform well on the hip replacement surgery outcome prediction.