STATISTICAL MODELS OF THE CLASSIFICATION INDICATOR OF THE DEGREE OF COAL METAMORPHISM FOR THE FORECAST OF DANGEROUS PROPERTIES OF COAL BEDS

M. Antoshchenko, Y. Rudniev, M. Filatiev, E. Filatieva
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Abstract

Purpose: Based on statistical models of volatile matter yield during thermal decomposition of coal without air access (Vdaf) to establish probable relative errors of its measurement of absolute values which would allow to use the indicator with predetermined accuracy Vdaf as the primary classification criterion metamorphism of coal beds for the prediction of dangerous properties when led mining. Methods. It is used to create several sets of Vdaf values that have some features that are essential for their characteristics, followed by analysis of the statistical characteristics of these sets with the establishment of differences or similarities between statistical models. Results. Six sets of coal beds, which have different features of their creation according to the Vdaf criterion. There were from 114 to 412 variants in each set. As a general conditionally accepted set of 2091 coal beds of different coal deposits. For all (7) sets tested, the hypothesis of a normal distribution of variants according to Pearson’s criterion χ2 was tested. One part of the sets tested was close to the normal distribution of random variables, and the other did not correspond to the normal law. It is established that one of the reasons for the inconsistency of parts of the population with the normal law is the various errors in determining Vdaf depending on the absolute value of this indicator. In addition, individual samples from the conditionally general population have the same nature of the distribution of relative frequencies: with an increase in Vdaf to 10%, they decrease; in the range from 10 to 40% slightly increase; when Vdaf > 40% – again there is a decrease. Based on the close correlation dependences of the relative standard deviations of the volatile matter yield from the averaging curves, the validity of the possible use of Vdaf in engineering calculations of the forecast of dangerous properties of shafts only at its values more than 15-20% is proved. The possible influence of the distance of the coal sampling site to the boundaries of gas weathering zones and geological disturbances, and the high dependence of coal (more than 20%) on the additional error of Vdaf determination was also established. The established possible error values do not guarantee high accuracy of forecasting the dangerous properties of coal beds when using Vdaf as the main indicator of the degree of metamorphism. Improving the regulatory framework for safe mining of coal seams requires justification and application of other indicators of the degree of coal metamorphism. Scientific novelty: For the first time on the basis of statistical models, ambiguous possible errors in determining the yield of volatile substances during thermal decomposition of coal without air access and the inexpediency of its use to predict the hazardous properties of coal beds in mining. Practical significance. The necessity of using other indicators of the degree of metamorphism to improve the regulatory framework for safe mining of coal beds, which directly reflect the content and properties of coal in the process of geological transformations, has been proved.
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煤变质程度分类指标的统计模型,用于预测煤层危险性质
目的:建立无导风煤热分解挥发分产率(Vdaf)的统计模型,建立其测量绝对值的可能相对误差,以便将具有预定精度的Vdaf指标作为煤层变质的主要分类标准,用于预测煤矿开采时的危险性质。方法。它用于创建几组Vdaf值,这些值具有一些对其特征至关重要的特征,然后分析这些集合的统计特征,建立统计模型之间的差异或相似之处。结果。根据Vdaf判据,选取了六组具有不同形成特征的煤层。每组中有114到412个变体。作为一套有条件接受的2091层不同煤层。对于所有(7)个检验集,根据Pearson标准χ2检验变量正态分布的假设。被检验的集合一部分接近随机变量的正态分布,另一部分不符合正态分布规律。可以确定,部分人口与正常规律不一致的原因之一是,根据该指标的绝对值确定Vdaf时存在各种错误。此外,来自有条件总体的个体样本具有相同的相对频率分布性质:随着Vdaf增加到10%,它们减小;在10%到40%的范围内略有增加;当Vdaf > 40%时,再次出现下降。基于挥发分产率的相对标准偏差与平均曲线的密切相关关系,证明了Vdaf在工程计算中仅在其值大于15-20%时才可能用于矿井危险特性预测的有效性。分析了煤样取样点距离瓦斯风化带和地质扰动边界的可能影响,以及煤样对Vdaf附加误差的高度依赖(超过20%)。以Vdaf作为主要变质程度指标时,所建立的可能误差值不能保证预测煤层危险性质的准确性。完善煤层安全开采的监管框架,需要对煤变质程度的其他指标进行论证和应用。科学上的新颖性:第一次在统计模型的基础上,在确定没有空气通道的煤炭热分解过程中挥发性物质的产量时,可能存在模糊的错误,并且在预测开采中煤层的危险特性时,使用统计模型是不合适的。现实意义。论证了利用变质程度的其他指标来完善煤层安全开采监管框架的必要性,这些指标直接反映了煤在地质转化过程中的含量和性质。
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