ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION RISK FROM CRUSHES OF ROCKS AT EXCAVATION SITES, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WAYS OF PROTECTION

Abstract

Purpose. To assess the production risk of rock collapse in a deep coal mine to identify hazards in the workplaces of the excavation site, taking into account different methods of protection of workings. Methods. A comprehensive approach was used, which included: analysis and generalization of known research; expert evaluation; use of the basic provisions of probability theory and set algebra (Venn diagrams), the method of estimating the production risk of Fine-Kinney; processing, analysis and interpretation of the obtained results. Results. Problems and sources of industrial risk from rock collapses during maintenance of workings, risk-forming factors that contribute to the threat of dangerous events at the excavation site are analyzed. The decision-making model is considered, which is based on the description of situations when the production risk of the dangerous factor “landslides and collapses” in the maintenance of preparatory workings depends on the result of choosing an alternative method of protection of the retractable lane. For excavation sites under the same mining and geological conditions for all workplaces, the probability of receiving consequences from dangerous events due to uncertain conditions of their implementation has been established. It is fixed that the realization of this production risk is influenced by low reliability and inefficiency of the practiced methods of protection of excavations. Risk analysis is defined as the systematic use of available information to identify hazards in the maintenance of long workings. Novelty. A model for monitoring the production risk of rock collapses in excavations of deep coal mines is proposed, which allows assessing the dynamics of the threat at the stage of technical decisions related to the choice and justification of the method of protection of workings taking into account the interaction of risk factors. Practical significance. When formulating measures to reduce the risk of dangerous events at the excavation site, it is necessary to take into account that the production risk of rock collapse while maintaining the workings depends largely on the method of protection and effectiveness of technological measures.