A new technology framework for the reliability assessment and life prediction of a satellite power subsystem

Xiaopeng Li, Hongzhong Huang, Wenming Zhou, Fuqiu Li
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The power subsystem is one of the most important subsystems of a satellite. This subsystem, supplies the power for the satellite platform and payloads, and ensures the smooth completion of the satellite mission. An accurate reliability assessment and life prediction results provide useful information to for satellite development. This paper takes chooses a sample earth observation satellite's power subsystem for example, and proposes a new reliability assessment and life prediction technology framework. First, the reliability data of the subsystem components (-including the cd-ni battery, lithium-ion battery, solar cell array, and Power controllers) collected. Secondly, the CMSR — (Combined Modified Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Sequential Reduction (CMSR) method is used to determine the subsystem's reliability function according to the components' reliability data. The evaluate the reliability point estimation and reliability at the end of life are evaluated under some a Specified specific confidence level. Third, the (Mean Mission Duration Time (MMDT) of the subsystem calculated based on its reliability function. Through all the work above, the designer of the subsystem can test if the subsystem reliability level satisfies the design requirements. At the same time, the orbital life of the subsystem can be predicted before the satellite launches. Further — more, the reliability assessment, and life prediction results, and technology framework of the power subsystem can form the foundation of research into satellite reliability and life assurance.
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卫星动力分系统可靠性评估与寿命预测的新技术框架
动力子系统是卫星最重要的子系统之一。该子系统为卫星平台和有效载荷提供动力,保证卫星任务的顺利完成。准确的可靠性评估和寿命预测结果为卫星研制提供了有用的信息。本文以某对地观测卫星动力分系统为例,提出了一种新的可靠性评估与寿命预测技术框架。首先,收集子系统组件(包括镉镍电池、锂离子电池、太阳能电池阵列和电源控制器)的可靠性数据。其次,根据部件的可靠性数据,采用CMSR (Combined Modified Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Sequential Reduction, CMSR)方法确定子系统的可靠性函数;在某一特定的置信水平下,对可靠性点估计和寿命终点可靠性进行了评估。第三,根据子系统的可靠性函数计算子系统的平均任务持续时间(MMDT)。通过以上工作,子系统的设计者可以测试子系统的可靠性水平是否满足设计要求。同时,可以在卫星发射前对分系统的轨道寿命进行预测。此外,动力子系统的可靠性评估和寿命预测结果以及技术框架可以为卫星可靠性和寿命保障研究奠定基础。
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