Global Assessments of Surface Winds and Waves From an Ensemble Forecast System Using Satellite Data

Abstract

This paper evaluates the 10-m wind intensities and significant wave heights from the NCEP Ensemble Forecast System using altimeter data. A total of 20 perturbed members plus a control member (deterministic run) compose the ensemble. The assessment is focused on the comparison between the control run and the ensemble mean, in terms of benefits presented by four error metrics. Four satellite missions are selected for the assessments, obtained from AVISO and NESDIS/NOAA databases. Results show that the scatter components of the errors strongly depends on the latitude, were extra-tropical locations at longer forecast times present large errors. A significant improvement using the ensemble forecast compared to deterministic runs was verified at these locations, where the RMSE of day 10 was reduced from 5 to 3.5 m/s for U10 and from 1.8 to 1.3 meters for Hs.