The Impact of Natural Gas Imports on the Current Account Deficit in Turkey

Abstract

The current account deficit is an important macroeconomic indicator that determines the future economic expectations and economic policies to be implemented. In developing countries such as Turkey, for the current account deficit problem, it is extremely important to ensure the implementation of various economic policies and measures. In Turkey, after natural gas reserves were found in 2020, energy imports, foreign dependence on energy imports, and energy issues, such as the share of current account deficit have been raised. The study, between the years 2009-2019 examines the impact on the current deficit of natural gas imports occurred in Turkey. In the study, the Unit Root Test and Granger causality tests were applied while considering the relationship between current account deficit and natural gas imports. Depending on the results obtained; while there is no Granger causality from current account deficit to natural gas imports, in the case where the current account deficit is dependent on natural gas imports; It has been determined that there is Granger causality from natural gas imports to the current account deficit. It is seen that the increase in natural gas imports caused an increase in the current account deficit. According to this analysis, it was concluded that if there is a natural gas resource in our country and it reduces foreign dependency, it will create a reducing effect on the current account deficit, which is seen as one of the most important indicators.