The Chinese Way

Luke A. Patey
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Abstract

Beijing has geopolitical, economic, and geostrategic ambitions for the Belt and Road. First, it wants to harness the Belt and Road to legitimize China’s developmental model of political authoritarianism and state capitalism worldwide. Africa, and large economies such as Kenya and Ethiopia, represents a key venue for the expansion of China’s model. China also seeks to drive the global expansion of China’s state-owned enterprises and private corporations and to offshore China’s overcapacity in heavy industries on its path to full economic development and modernization. Finally, Beijing aims to harness the Belt and Road to alleviate its geostrategic vulnerabilities. But there are challenges facing the Belt and Road. China’s model will only gain long lasting legitimacy if the initiative produces tangible economic development for foreign countries. In Sri Lanka, Malaysia, the Maldives, and across Asia, China’s economic and geostrategic aims face entrenched business and political interests, changing politics, conflict, and varying economic capacities to shoulder new debt.
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中国方式
北京对“一带一路”有地缘政治、经济和地缘战略野心。首先,中国希望利用“一带一路”在全球范围内使中国的政治威权主义和国家资本主义发展模式合法化。非洲以及肯尼亚和埃塞俄比亚等大型经济体是中国模式扩张的关键场所。中国还寻求推动中国国有企业和私营企业的全球扩张,并在实现全面经济发展和现代化的道路上,将中国重工业的产能过剩转移到海外。最后,北京的目标是利用“一带一路”来减轻其地缘战略脆弱性。但“一带一路”也面临挑战。中国模式只有为其他国家带来实实在在的经济发展,才能获得长久的合法性。在斯里兰卡、马来西亚、马尔代夫和整个亚洲,中国的经济和地缘战略目标面临着根深蒂固的商业和政治利益、不断变化的政治、冲突和承担新债务的不同经济能力。
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