Can the Elder’s Migration Increase the Probability of Migrants Giving Birth to a Second Child?

Abstract

This paper adopts a binary probit regression model to examine the influence of the elder’s migration on migrants’ behaviour about giving birth to a second child using data from the 2015 Chinese Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey of the National Health and Family Planning Commission. The results show that the proportion of two children families in migrants is not high, and the probability of migrant families having a second child can be significantly increased by the elder’s migration. The results remained unchanged after two instrumental variables were selected for the elder’s migration and used ERM model to conduct an endogeneity test. One instrumental variable is the rate of the elder’ migration of others at the same sample point, and the other is whether the migrants have brothers or sisters in their hometown. The reason may be that there is a tradition of inter-generational care in China and the migratory elders can help to take care of the children to reduce the cost of migrants having a second child.This paper provide some references for improving the probability of migrants giving birth to a second child. Keywords—the elder’s migration; giving birth to a second child; migrants; fertility