Preparing for the post-petroleum era: what electric vehicle advocates and others need to know about alternative fuel vehicles

Abstract

Despite the offer of tax incentives for converting vehicles to alternative fuels, fewer than 8 million alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) are expected to be placed in service in the next ten years. More than 90 percent of car owners can be expected to continue to rely on imported oil for at least half of their transportation fuel. An optimistic projection estimates that half of the US commercial fleet will have switched to alternative motor fuels by 2005. Assumptions about AFVs are addressed. Challenges facing the electric vehicle (EV) industry are outlined including the least discussed form of pollution attributable to EVs (airborne lead emissions). EVs are presented as a transition to the fuel-cell vehicle. Automobile manufacturers will depend increasingly on the electronics industry to help develop vehicles for the post-petroleum era.