INVESTIGATING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MONETARY POLICY UNCERATAINTY INDEX OF US AND THE DOLLAR INDEX

Samet Gürsoy, K. Pradhan, Sandhyarani Rout, M. Doğan
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Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the effect of the monetary policy uncertainty index for the US on the dollar index. In other words, in this study, the relationship between the US MPU (USM) and the Dollar index (XD) was examined. We employ the Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test from the period January 1986 through August 2020 by using monthly data. The results of the empirical analysis prove a strong non-linear causal relationship between the variable MPU index and XD. The overall result ascertains a positive and negative bidirectional asymmetric and non-linear causality existing between the variables XD and USM index. The results of the empirical investigation endorse important policy inputs for the macroeconomic policy formulators.
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考察了我国货币政策不确定性指数与美元指数的关系
本文研究了美国货币政策不确定性指数对美元指数的影响。换句话说,在本研究中,美国MPU (USM)和美元指数(XD)之间的关系进行了检查。从1986年1月到2020年8月,我们使用月度数据采用了Hatemi-J(2012)的不对称因果检验。实证分析结果表明,变量MPU指数与XD之间存在较强的非线性因果关系。总体结果确定了变量XD与USM指数之间存在正、负双向非对称和非线性的因果关系。实证调查的结果为宏观经济政策制定者提供了重要的政策投入。
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