Return Migration and Earnings Mobility in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract

This study examines how workers’ pre-existing socio-economic profiles andcross-border return-migration experiences affect their lifetime andintergenerational transmission of economic status in three Middle East andNorthern Africa (MENA) countries. We apply transition analysis andinstrumental variable regressions to seven harmonized Labor Market PanelSurveys - Egypt (1998, 2006, 2012), Jordan (2010, 2016), and Tunisia(2014) - to link the current economic outcomes of prime-age male workersto those in prior years and to those of their fathers. Real earnings in prioryears are imputed using the historic positions of individuals, as well as thejob-type and occupation group cell means observed in the survey year. Wefind that migration decisions and destinations are driven by economic,geographic, and family-history considerations. Return migrants landhigher-earning jobs and are more mobile across generations thannever-migrants. They outperform non-migrants, not only now but also inprevious years and, according to evidence, even before their migration spell.After controlling for mitigating factors, the role of migration disappears,implying that individual-level effects and demographics are responsible.