Aircraft runway excursion prediction model based on exponential weight

Abstract

Existing problems in the prediction methods for aircraft runway excursion are analyzed in this study and summarized in this paper. Based on the cause factors, process events, and internal mechanism of runway excursion, through event analysis, expert discussion, and other methods, the prediction index system is established. This system includes the three aspects of pilot, airport, and aircraft. The weights and risk level standards for each index are determined. Based on the impact of each index on the runway excursion, the exponential weight method is used to establish the prediction model of runway excursion. Using the model, the influence coefficient of each index to the runway excursion is calculated and then superposed to realize the prediction of the runway excursion. Finally, an airline is chosen for model application, which shows that the model is a practical new method to predict the occurrence of runway excursion.