Estimating future demand for hospital emergency services at the regional level

Abstract

The level of demand for hospital emergency services is closely connected to the demographic characteristics of a region's population. The objective of this study is to examine the influence of changes in population size and structure on the volume of emergency service needs exhibited by patients arriving at hospital emergency departments in the area. The Monte Carlo simulation model examines demographic trends at the regional level, formulates forecasts for population changes, and extrapolates the simulated patterns of the demand for acute services. The model includes data on the population in 9 districts that surround Wrocław, the capital of Lower Silesia (Poland) and data on acute visits to emergency departments located in the region. Our analysis suggests that two age groups, i.e., children aged 0-4 and elderly people aged 60 and over, are responsible for a large share of the changes in the demand level.