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West Nile Virus system dynamics investigation in Dallas County, TX 德克萨斯州达拉斯县西尼罗病毒系统动力学调查
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721585
Mohammad F. Obeid, John B. Shull
After its first introduction in 1999, West Nile Virus (WNV) has spread very widely along the east coasts of the United States before appearing in Texas where 1792 cases were reported of which 82 were fatal in 2012. The interesting patterns and behavior of the virus and its amplified impact on the county of Dallas drove this work. This paper encompasses a thorough development of a systems dynamics simulation model that imitates the virus's infectious behavior and dynamics in Dallas County, TX utilizing historical data collected and the aid of suitable software packages.
自1999年首次传入以来,西尼罗病毒(WNV)在美国东海岸广泛传播,然后出现在德克萨斯州,2012年报告了1792例病例,其中82例死亡。病毒的有趣模式和行为及其对达拉斯县的放大影响推动了这项工作。本文包含了一个系统动力学模拟模型的全面开发,该模型利用收集的历史数据和适当软件包的帮助,模拟了德克萨斯州达拉斯县病毒的感染行为和动态。
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引用次数: 2
A sequential procedure for estimating the steady-state mean using standardized time series 使用标准化时间序列估计稳态平均值的顺序程序
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721455
C. Alexopoulos, D. Goldsman, Peng Tang, James R. Wilson
We propose SPSTS, an automated sequential procedure for computing point and confidence-interval (CI) estimators for the steady-state mean of a simulation output process. This procedure is based on variance estimators computed from standardized time series, and it is characterized by its simplicity relative to methods based on batch means and its ability to deliver CIs for the variance parameter of the output process. The effectiveness of SPSTS is evaluated via comparisons with methods based on batch means. In preliminary experimentation with the steady-state waiting-time process for the M/M/1 queue with a server utilization of 90%, we found that SPSTS performed comparatively well in terms of its average required sample size as well as the coverage and average half-length of its delivered CIs.
我们提出了SPSTS,一种自动顺序程序,用于计算模拟输出过程的稳态均值的点和置信区间(CI)估计。该过程基于从标准化时间序列计算的方差估计量,其特点是相对于基于批均值的方法简单,并且能够为输出过程的方差参数提供ci。通过与基于批均值的方法的比较来评估SPSTS的有效性。在服务器利用率为90%的M/M/1队列的稳态等待时间过程的初步实验中,我们发现SPSTS在其平均所需样本量以及其交付ci的覆盖率和平均半长方面表现相对较好。
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引用次数: 9
Integration of simulation and Pareto-based optimization for space planning in the finishing phase 整合模拟和基于帕累托的空间规划优化在完成阶段
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721685
Trang Dang, H. Bargstädt
In order to improve the flexibility and adaptability of an automated model to various different projects under different circumstances, various solutions should be generated as proposed results, instead of only one solution as in recent research. This paper therefore presents a method for generating a series of reasonably detailed schedules for mapping the workplaces of activities over time. This model incorporates Pareto-based optimization and simulation. The optimization engine takes on the role for generating and choosing good schedules. The simulators, on the other hand, are responsible for manipulating activities to resolve spatial conflicts, to respect the limits of crews and investigate the efficiency of solutions. A prototype implementation is afterwards developed and implemented in software based on Building Information Modeling, which enables the model to automatically retrieve the required geometric data. The output solutions are finally analyzed through an example to prove their feasibility and adaptability to various potential situations.
为了提高自动化模型在不同情况下对各种不同项目的灵活性和适应性,应该作为提议的结果生成各种解决方案,而不是像最近的研究那样只有一个解决方案。因此,本文提出了一种方法,用于生成一系列合理详细的时间表,以映射活动的工作场所随着时间的推移。该模型结合了基于帕累托的优化和仿真。优化引擎的作用是生成和选择好的调度。另一方面,模拟器负责操纵活动以解决空间冲突,尊重机组人员的限制并调查解决方案的效率。然后,基于建筑信息建模,开发了原型实现,并在软件中实现,使模型能够自动检索所需的几何数据。最后通过实例分析了输出方案的可行性和对各种潜在情况的适应性。
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引用次数: 2
Modeling and simulating the effects of OS Jitter 建模和模拟操作系统抖动的影响
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.5555/2675983.2676250
Elder Vicente, Rivalino Matias
The phenomenon of operating system (OS) Jitter has been investigated and considered a critical factor in high-performance computing. In this paper we model and simulate the effects of different sources of OS Jitter in the Linux operating system. We adopt the design of experiments approach to conduct experiments statistically planned. Our simulation models corroborate the results obtained experimentally. We conclude that the OS Jitter has a higher impact when the number of the computational phases is high, for any number of computing nodes from 1 to 500. We also observed that in Linux, the highest OS Jitter impacts are caused by managing the shared processor cache and network interrupts, where the second shows the highest sensitivity with respect to the cluster size.
操作系统(OS)抖动现象已经被研究并被认为是高性能计算的一个关键因素。本文对不同来源的抖动在Linux操作系统中的影响进行了建模和仿真。我们采用实验设计的方法进行统计计划的实验。我们的模拟模型证实了实验结果。我们得出结论,对于从1到500的任何数量的计算节点,当计算阶段的数量较高时,操作系统抖动具有更高的影响。我们还观察到,在Linux中,最大的操作系统抖动影响是由管理共享处理器缓存和网络中断引起的,其中后者对集群大小的敏感度最高。
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引用次数: 6
An effective proposal distribution for sequential Monte Carlo methods-based wildfire data assimilation 基于时序蒙特卡罗方法的野火数据同化的有效建议分布
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721573
Haidong Xue, Xiaolin Hu
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have shown their effectiveness in data assimilation for wildfire simulation; however, when errors of wildfire simulation models are extremely large or rare events happen, the current SMC methods have limited impacts on improving the simulation results. The major problem lies in the proposal distribution that is commonly chosen as the system transition prior in order to avoid difficulties in importance weight updating. In this article, we propose a more effective proposal distribution by taking advantage of information contained in sensor data, and also present a method to solve the problem in weight updating. Experimental results demonstrate that a SMC method with this proposal distribution significantly improves wildfire simulation results when the one with a system transition prior proposal fails.
序贯蒙特卡罗(SMC)方法在野火模拟数据同化方面具有较好的效果。然而,当野火模拟模型的误差非常大或发生罕见事件时,现有的SMC方法对改善模拟结果的影响有限。主要问题在于为了避免重要性权重更新困难,通常选择提案分布作为系统转移的优先选择。在本文中,我们提出了一种利用传感器数据中包含的信息进行更有效的提议分配的方法,并提出了一种解决权重更新问题的方法。实验结果表明,当具有系统过渡先验建议的SMC方法失败时,具有这种建议分布的SMC方法显著改善了野火模拟结果。
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引用次数: 7
Investigations of DDDAS for command and control of UAV swarms with agent-based modeling 基于智能体建模的无人机群指挥控制DDDAS研究
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721531
R. McCune, Rachael Purta, Mikolaj Dobski, Artur Jaworski, Greg Madey, Alexander G. Madey, Y. Wei, M. Brian Blake
The application of Dynamic Data Driven Application Systems (DDDAS) to the command and control of swarms of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is being investigated. Swarm intelligent systems are not only efficient at solving group-level problems, but also decentralized, controllable by few simple parameters, making possible the command and control of UAV swarms by a single operator. Four separate but related projects are surveyed that explore the command and control of UAV swarms. Each project employs the DDDAS paradigm, entailing the ability of an executing application to incorporate dynamic data into the decision process, and conversely, to steer the measurement process via a central application system. By providing an overview of DDDAS approaches to UAV swarm mission scheduling, UAV swarm communication, UAV swarm formation planning, and flocking applications, general principles of UAV swarms and DDDAS architecture may be observed.
动态数据驱动应用系统(DDDAS)在无人机群指挥控制中的应用是目前研究的课题。蜂群智能系统不仅在解决群体层面的问题上效率高,而且具有分散、由几个简单参数控制的特点,使得单个操作人员对无人机蜂群的指挥和控制成为可能。调查了四个独立但相关的项目,探讨了无人机群的指挥和控制。每个项目都采用DDDAS范例,使执行应用程序能够将动态数据合并到决策过程中,反过来,通过中央应用程序系统来引导度量过程。通过概述DDDAS方法在无人机群任务调度、无人机群通信、无人机群编队规划和群集应用中的应用,可以观察到无人机群和DDDAS体系结构的一般原理。
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引用次数: 29
Simulation-based truck fleet analysis to study the impact of federal motor carrier safety administration's 2013 hours of service regulation changes 基于仿真的卡车车队分析,研究联邦汽车运输安全管理局2013年服务时数法规变化的影响
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721703
Jeff Young
July 1, 2013 will usher in new revisions to the current Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration's Hours of Service (HOS) regulations governing hours of service for drivers of Commercial Motor Vehicles. This paper will chronicle the modeling approach and preliminary results of the performance impact of the two most significant 2013 HOS regulation changes on a large random over-the-road (OTR) trucking fleet operating in North America. The ultimate goal of this modeling analysis was to provide data to quantify the pending impact of the regulation changes to guide company strategies to mitigate risk and provide a foundation for proactive customer communications. The simulation model was successfully validated by comparing simulated fleet performance against actual fleet performance. Results have been used to communicate impact to internal company stake holders, industry analysts, and customers, along with prompting detailed fleet studies to identify strategies to minimize impact to high risk customers.
2013年7月1日,联邦汽车运输安全管理局(Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration,简称HOS)关于商用机动车驾驶员服务时间的规定将迎来新的修订。本文将对2013年两项最重要的HOS法规变化对北美大型随机越野(OTR)卡车车队性能影响的建模方法和初步结果进行编年史分析。此建模分析的最终目标是提供数据来量化法规变化的潜在影响,以指导公司降低风险的策略,并为主动与客户沟通提供基础。通过对仿真车队性能与实际车队性能的对比,成功验证了仿真模型的有效性。结果被用于与公司内部股东、行业分析师和客户沟通影响,同时促进详细的车队研究,以确定最小化对高风险客户影响的策略。
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引用次数: 3
Regenerative simulation for multiclass open queueing networks 多类开放排队网络的再生仿真
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721458
S. Moka, S. Juneja
Conceptually, under restrictions, multiclass open queueing networks are positive Harris recurrent Markov processes, making them amenable to regenerative simulation for estimating the steady-state performance measures. However, regenerations in such networks are difficult to identify when the interarrival times are generally distributed. We assume that the interarrival times have exponential or heavier tails and show that such distributions can be decomposed into mixture of sums of independent random variables such that at least one of the components is exponentially distributed. This allows an implementable regenerative simulation for these networks. We show that the regenerative mean and standard deviation estimators are consistent and satisfy a joint central limit theorem. We also show that amongst all such interarrival decompositions, the one with largest mean exponential component minimizes the asymptotic variance of the standard deviation estimator. We also propose a regenerative simulation method that is applicable even when the interarrival times have superexponential tails.
从概念上讲,在限制条件下,多类开放排队网络是正Harris递归马尔可夫过程,使其适合用于估计稳态性能指标的再生仿真。然而,当到达间隔时间一般分布时,这种网络中的再生很难识别。我们假设到达间隔时间具有指数或较重的尾部,并表明这种分布可以分解为独立随机变量和的混合,使得至少有一个分量是指数分布的。这允许对这些网络进行可实现的再生模拟。我们证明了再生均值和标准差估计量是一致的,并且满足一个联合中心极限定理。我们还表明,在所有这样的到达间分解中,平均指数分量最大的分解使标准差估计量的渐近方差最小。我们还提出了一种再生模拟方法,该方法适用于到达间隔时间具有超指数尾的情况。
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引用次数: 2
Characteristics of a simulation model of the national kidney transplantation system 国家肾移植系统仿真模型的特点
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721607
Ashley Davis, Sanjay Mehrotra, J. Friedewald, D. Ladner
The United Network for Organ Sharing is planning to resolve the ever-growing geographic disparities in kidney transplantation. Currently available simulation techniques are limited in their ability to analyze the impact of policy changes at the system level. This paper discusses the development of a discrete event simulation of the kidney transplantation system, KSIM. KSIM design is discussed and can easily be adapted to test alternative geographic organ allocation policies. Input analysis employing actual transplantation system data was conducted to best represent patient and organ arrival processes. After discussing our model, we briefly describe how KSIM was verified and validated against twenty years of actual transplantation system information. We also describe the potential usability of KSIM in organ allocation policy development.
器官共享联合网络正计划解决肾脏移植日益增长的地域差异。目前可用的模拟技术在分析系统一级政策变化的影响方面能力有限。本文讨论了肾移植系统离散事件模拟的发展,KSIM。讨论了KSIM设计,可以很容易地适应于测试不同的地理器官分配策略。采用实际移植系统数据进行输入分析,以最好地代表患者和器官到达过程。在讨论了我们的模型之后,我们简要地描述了KSIM是如何根据20年来的实际移植系统信息进行验证和验证的。我们还描述了KSIM在器官分配政策制定中的潜在可用性。
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引用次数: 19
Towards a cloud based SME data adapter for simulation modelling 面向面向仿真建模的基于云的SME数据适配器
Pub Date : 2013-12-08 DOI: 10.1109/WSC.2013.6721415
James Byrne, P. J. Byrne, D. Ferreira, A. Ivers
Discrete event simulation (DES) is a technique used extensively and effectively by large companies, however it is not widely used by small to medium sized enterprises (SMEs) due to complexity and related costs being prohibitively high. In SMEs, DES-related data can be stored in a variety of formats and it is not always evident what data is required (if even available) to support a DES model in relation to specific problem scenarios. Therefore the DES data gathering and preparation phase is where complexity and effort required are highest in order to avoid the potential for erroneous results due to incorrect assumed or real input data. The proposed solution is a Cloud-based adapter that can identify and connect to existing data sources and/or fills gaps in data in relation to defined problem scenarios, thus lowering the barriers for SMEs to gain benefit from DES studies due to reduced complexity and effort.
离散事件模拟(DES)是大公司广泛而有效地使用的一种技术,但由于其复杂性和相关成本过高,中小型企业(SMEs)并未广泛使用该技术。在中小企业中,与DES相关的数据可以以各种格式存储,并且并不总是很明显需要什么数据(如果有的话)来支持与特定问题场景相关的DES模型。因此,为了避免由于不正确的假设或实际输入数据而产生错误结果的可能性,DES数据收集和准备阶段需要的复杂性和工作量是最高的。建议的解决方案是一个基于云的适配器,它可以识别并连接到现有的数据源和/或填补与定义的问题场景相关的数据空白,从而降低中小企业从DES研究中获益的障碍,因为它降低了复杂性和工作量。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
2013 Winter Simulations Conference (WSC)
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