Stock Selection Timing

Abstract

We argue that active fund managers can pick stocks only when the market presents such opportunities. We propose measures of stock selection opportunity and show evidence that a significant portion of mutual funds time stock selection, i.e., trading more when stock selection opportunities are present. We show that positive timers outperform negative timers by about 1% in annualized four-factor alpha over the subsequent six-month horizon and, more importantly, stock selection timing adds value to investors even after controlling for fund manager stock-picking talent. Finally, we show that funds with higher expense ratios and larger family size exhibit stronger timing skills.