Development of a Model Output Statistic and implementation of an operational solar photovoltaic energy forecast model based in WRF

Abstract

In this work, an operational solar energy forecast model was developed based in correction of irradatiation obtained from WRF output. This output depends on the Hourly Clearness Index (kt). Three different physic schemes of WRF parametrization are analyzed in this work. The horizontal irradiation computed by Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) is the input of the developed Model Output Statistic (MOS). Solar irradiation is converted from horizontal to tilted surface, and a final photo-voltaic solar energy plant coefficient is calibrated to obtain the minimal absolute error in the period of calibration.