Fuzzy Failure Rate Model of Power Transformer Based on Condition Monitoring

Abstract

Aiming at the bottleneck problem of the lack of equipment fuzzy failure rate that can reflect its own health state in the calculation process of fuzzy probability hybrid reliability evaluation of power system, a fuzzy failure rate model of power transformers based on multi-source condition monitoring information is proposed. This method first establishes the transformer condition monitoring index system considering fuzzy condition monitoring information, expresses the condition monitoring data through the fuzzy normal distribution membership function, and uses the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method to evaluate the health state of the transformer; the concept of evaluation set is extended, the state evaluation result data is processed by means of decomposition, superposition, mapping and fitting. Finally, the transformer condition failure rate expressed by membership function is obtained. The calculation example of a power grid in a certain area shows the calculation process of the fuzzy failure rate of the transformer, and the results conform to the statistical law of reliability data, which can reflect the current state of the equipment. The fuzzy failure rate can be used to calculate the fuzzy probability hybrid reliability index of the power system, and can provide decision support for further equipment maintenance.