Analysts’ Earnings per Share Forecasts: The Effects of Forecast Uncertainty and Forecast Precision on Investor Judgements

IF 2.5 4区 管理学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Abacus-A Journal of Accounting Finance and Business Studies Pub Date : 2023-09-14 DOI:10.1111/abac.12302
Clarence Goh
{"title":"Analysts’ Earnings per Share Forecasts: The Effects of Forecast Uncertainty and Forecast Precision on Investor Judgements","authors":"Clarence Goh","doi":"10.1111/abac.12302","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study uses controlled experiments to investigate the joint effects of forecast uncertainty and forecast precision on investor judgements. It finds that forecast precision moderates the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ forecast reliability judgements such that the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ judgements of forecast reliability are more negative when an analyst's point earnings per share (EPS) forecast is rounded than when it is precise. In addition, the relationship between forecast precision and investors’ judgements of forecast reliability is mediated by investors’ perceptions of forecast attributes. The evidence also suggests that while forecast uncertainty exerts a negative effect on investment judgements, forecast precision does not play a role in mitigating these negative effects. Using a supplementary within‐participants experiment, the study further finds that investors may not be consciously aware of how forecast precision influences their judgements of forecast reliability.","PeriodicalId":47285,"journal":{"name":"Abacus-A Journal of Accounting Finance and Business Studies","volume":"75 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Abacus-A Journal of Accounting Finance and Business Studies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/abac.12302","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study uses controlled experiments to investigate the joint effects of forecast uncertainty and forecast precision on investor judgements. It finds that forecast precision moderates the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ forecast reliability judgements such that the effects of forecast uncertainty on investors’ judgements of forecast reliability are more negative when an analyst's point earnings per share (EPS) forecast is rounded than when it is precise. In addition, the relationship between forecast precision and investors’ judgements of forecast reliability is mediated by investors’ perceptions of forecast attributes. The evidence also suggests that while forecast uncertainty exerts a negative effect on investment judgements, forecast precision does not play a role in mitigating these negative effects. Using a supplementary within‐participants experiment, the study further finds that investors may not be consciously aware of how forecast precision influences their judgements of forecast reliability.
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
分析师的每股收益预测:预测不确定性和预测精度对投资者判断的影响
本研究采用对照实验研究预测不确定性和预测精度对投资者判断的共同影响。研究发现,预测精度调节了预测不确定性对投资者预测可靠性判断的影响,当分析师的每股收益(EPS)预测是四舍五入时,预测不确定性对投资者预测可靠性判断的影响比预测精度时更负向。此外,预测精度与投资者对预测可靠性判断之间的关系是通过投资者对预测属性的感知来中介的。证据还表明,虽然预测不确定性对投资判断产生负面影响,但预测精度在缓解这些负面影响方面不起作用。通过补充参与者内部实验,研究进一步发现投资者可能没有意识到预测精度如何影响他们对预测可靠性的判断。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
4.80%
发文量
25
期刊介绍: Since 1965 Abacus has consistently provided a vehicle for the expression of independent and critical thought on matters of current academic and professional interest in accounting, finance and business. The journal reports current research; critically evaluates current developments in theory and practice; analyses the effects of the regulatory framework of accounting, finance and business; and explores alternatives to, and explanations of, past and current practices.
期刊最新文献
Boosting Government Assets as A Revenue Center: Risk and Treatment The Effect of Organizational Climate on Sell‐side Analyst Turnover and Performance Ex‐military Top Executives and Corporate Violations: Evidence from China Corporate Governance Reforms and Analyst Forecasts: International Evidence Analysts’ Earnings per Share Forecasts: The Effects of Forecast Uncertainty and Forecast Precision on Investor Judgements
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1