{"title":"Hurricanes, fertility, and family structure: a study of early 20th century Jamaica","authors":"Robert J R Elliott, Eric A Strobl, Thomas Tveit","doi":"10.1080/1081602x.2023.2256507","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study investigates the impact of hurricanes on fertility and the role of family structure in early 20th century Jamaica. Importantly, this was a time period in which there were no storm warnings or other formal disaster mitigation policies in place, allowing one to arguably identify the causal effect of storms on births without any policy interference. To this end, historical hurricane tracks and an exhaustive register of births are used to create a parish level monthly data set on births and hurricane destruction for the period 1901 to 1929. The regression analysis reveals that hurricanes impact excess births for close to 2 years after the event, with the average damaging storm causing a reduction in births of around 13%. Most of the negative effect is due to lower post-storm fertility rather than a fall in births by women affected while pregnant. There is no evidence that the fall in births was driven by fertile females dying as a result of the hurricane. Similarly, there was no discernible differential impact between single mother and two parent registered births, where the impact on the latter appears to be driven by non-marital conjugal unions.","PeriodicalId":46118,"journal":{"name":"History of the Family","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"History of the Family","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1081602x.2023.2256507","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"FAMILY STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of hurricanes on fertility and the role of family structure in early 20th century Jamaica. Importantly, this was a time period in which there were no storm warnings or other formal disaster mitigation policies in place, allowing one to arguably identify the causal effect of storms on births without any policy interference. To this end, historical hurricane tracks and an exhaustive register of births are used to create a parish level monthly data set on births and hurricane destruction for the period 1901 to 1929. The regression analysis reveals that hurricanes impact excess births for close to 2 years after the event, with the average damaging storm causing a reduction in births of around 13%. Most of the negative effect is due to lower post-storm fertility rather than a fall in births by women affected while pregnant. There is no evidence that the fall in births was driven by fertile females dying as a result of the hurricane. Similarly, there was no discernible differential impact between single mother and two parent registered births, where the impact on the latter appears to be driven by non-marital conjugal unions.
期刊介绍:
The History of the Family: An International Quarterly makes a significant contribution by publishing works reflecting new developments in scholarship and by charting new directions in the historical study of the family. Further emphasizing the international developments in historical research on the family, the Quarterly encourages articles on comparative research across various cultures and societies in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Pacific Rim, in addition to Europe, the United States and Canada, as well as work in the context of global history.