The Inadequacy of Unilateral Secession Referendums in Modern Democracies

Abstract

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size DISCLOSURE STATEMENTNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 See introduction to the Australia Constitution which states that the country is ‘indissoluble’. See Article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution which permits secession.2 Mark McLaughlin and Sara Wildernberg, ‘We Will Hold Referendum Come What May, Nicola Sturgeon Tells Rishi Sunak’ The Times (11 November 2022) accessed 18 August 2023.3 There is a precedent in s 1 Northern Ireland Act 1998 as part of the Good Friday Agreement.4 Reference by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act [2022] UKSC 31.5 The Spanish Constitution, art. 149.1.32.6 STC 32/2015 de 25 de febrero Disposición 2833 del BOE núm. 64 de 2015 (in Spanish).7 Judgement No. 118. Year 2015 Italian Constitutional Court. S118_2015_en.pdf (cortecostituzionale.it). German Federal Constitutional Court. BVerfG, Beschluss vom 16.12.2016–2 BvR 349/16 (cf.). It was a resolution (Beschluss), not a judgement (Entscheidung/Urteil).8 Ethiopian Constitution, art 39.9 St Kitts and Nevis Constitution, s 113.10 Ibid.11 ‘Advocate General: Scottish Government consultation won't remove legal problem with referendum16 January 2012’ accessed 17 August 2023.12 Agreement between the United Kingdom Government and the Scottish Government on a referendum on independence for Scotland (The Edinburgh Agreement). 15 October 2012.13 Lorne Walker-Nolan. Chess, ´Brexit, ‘El Proces’ and Referenda’ (Spain in English, 27 May 2019). accessed 17 August 2023.14 Peter Radan, ‘Secessionist Referenda in International and Domestic Law’ (2012) 18 Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 8, 14.15 Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of the Republic of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement, 15 August 2005.16 Günter Rautz, ‘South Tyrolean Autonomy as a Model for Coexistence between Ethnic Groups’ in Zoltán Kantor (ed), Autonomies in Europe: Solutions and Challenges (2014). For more, see Pau Bossacoma i Busquets. Justícia i legalitat de la secessió Una teoria de l’autodeterminació nacional des de Cataluny (Generalitat de Catalunya, Institut d’Estudis Autonòmics 2015) (in Catalan).17 Sam Jones, ‘Separatist movement in Catalonia steps up battle with Madrid’ The Guardian (28 July 2016) < https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/27/catalonia-independence-spain-democratic-mandate > accessed 17 August 2023.18 Moreover, even clear majorities in unilateral referendums such as in Somaliland and Krajina were an irrelevance, as were those with high turnouts such as in Tartarstan. See Matt Qvortrup, ‘Breaking up is Hard to Do: The Neil Sedaka theory of independence referendums’ (2020) 41 International Political Science Review 648.19 Accordance with International Law of the Unilateral Declaration of Independence in Respect of Kosovo. 22 July 2010.20 Ibid, 223.21 Report of the International Committee of Jurists entrusted by the Council of the League of Nations with the task of giving an advisory opinion upon the legal aspects of the Aland Islands questions, 1920.22 This point of view was echoed by UN Secretary General U Thant who stated in 1970 in the context of Biafra that ‘as far as the question of secession of a particular part of a Member State is concerned the United Nations attitude is unequivocal. As an international organization the United Nations has never accepted does not accept and I believe it will never accept a principle of secession of a part of its member States.’ United Nations Monthly Chronicle No2 February 1970, p 36, and again by then Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali in 1992 who reiterated ‘if every ethnic, religious or linguistic group claimed statehood there would be no limit to fragmentation’. An Agenda for Peace: Preventive Diplomacy, Peace-making and Peacekeeping, is a report written by UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali in 1992.23 Sara Prim, ‘Obama Wants US to Maintain Relationship with “a Strong and Unified Spain”’ Catalan News (16 September 2015) accessed 17 August 2023.24 Antonio Cassese, Self-Determination of the Peoples: A Legal Reappraisal (Cambridge University Press 1995) 119–20.25 Robert Marquand. ‘Why Kosovo’s Independence Bid is Unique’ Christian Science Monitor (15 February 2008) accessed 18 August 2023.26 Qvortrup (n 19) 649.27 Ibid.28 Ibid.29 Foreign Secretary statement on the Kurdistan Regional Government’s intention to hold a referendum on independence from Iraq accessed 17 August 2023.30 Italian Constitutional Court. Judgment No. 118 of 2015. The Court largely upheld the challenges by the Veneto region to hold referendum on independence on the grounds that they concerned fundamental choices on constitutional level, which are as such precluded from the scope of regional referendums according to the case law of the Constitutional Court.31 Miquel Noguer, ‘Mas pone rumbo a la autodeterminación’ El País (25 September 2012) accessed 18 August 2023 (in Spanish).32 Catalan Decree 129/2014.33 Spanish Constitutional Court STC138/2015 de 11 de junio.34 Spanish Constitutional Court STC 259/2015 de 2 de diciembre.35 Aleix Moldes, ‘CEO poll: over 75% of Catalans Would Vote in Unilateral Referendum’ (Ara in English, 31 March 2017) accessed 17 August 2023.36 ‘Council of Statutory Guarantees backs Allocation for Referendum but Denies Government’s Competences’ Catalan News Agency (3 March 2017) accessed 17 August 2023.37 Victor Ferreres Comella. ‘The Catalan Secessionist Movement and Europe – Remarks on the Venice Commission’s Opinion 827/2015’ Verfassungsblog (22 March 2017) accessed 17 August 2023.38 Venice Commission, Spain, Opinion No. 827 / 2015. Organic Law 15/2015 of 16 October on the Reform of Organic Law 2/1979 of 3 October of the Constitutional Court Concerning the Execution of Decisions.39 Lorne Walker-Nolan, ‘Political Severance–Secession Referenda, Their Convocation and Ratification: A Comparative Study’ (2018) 25 International Journal on Minority and Group Rights 591–620.40 See ‘Spain: Human Rights Abuses and Political Prosecution’ accessed 17 August 2023.41 Statement on UDI made by Catalan regional parliament, 27 October 2017 accessed 18 August 2023; see also France’s response ‘Catalogne: Emmanuel Macron apporte son "plein soutien" à Mariano Rajoy’ in French, and that of the US, ‘USA: “Catalonia is an integral part of Spain”’ accessed 18 August 2023.42 CEO. Dossier de premsa del Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 2a onada 2023 (gencat.cat) Part 5 (in Catalan).43 Ibid, 72.44 McLaughlin, Wildernberg (n 3).45 Peter Davidson, ‘Nicola Sturgeon speech in full as First Minister reacts to Supreme Court verdict’ The Daily Record (23 November 2022) accessed 18 August 2023.46 Ibid.47 Katrine Bussey, ‘No Such Thing as a De-Facto Referendum, Says Expert Amid SNP Plans for indyref2’ Independent (29 June 2022) accessed 18 August 2023.48 Ibid.49 CEO. Baròmetre d'Opinió Política. 3a onada 2022 (govern.cat) 31 (in Catalan).50 Cliff Taylor, Pat Leahy, ‘Sinn Féin surge driven by younger urban voters’ The Irish Times (7 Feb 2020) accessed 18 August 2023.51 ‘Scotland's Sturgeon Rules Out New Independence Referendum Until Most Scots Persuaded’ Reuters (20 April 2016) accessed 18 August 2023.52 ‘SNP Want Polls to Show 60 Support for Independence for a Whole Year Before Calling Referendum’ The Sunday Herald (18 October 2015) accessed 18 August 2023.53 Ibid.54 Severin Carrell, ‘Scottish Independence Vote Depends on Sustained Support, Says UK Minister’ The Guardian (27 August 2021) accessed 18 August 2023.55 Opinion of Supreme Court of Canada, Aug. 20, 1998, ‘Reference re Secession of Quebec’ [1998] 2.S.C.R 217.56 Ibid, para 8757 Ibid, para 9358 See ‘Enquête GROP: 52,6% des Québécois pour la souveraineté-association. 40.5% pour l’indépendance pure et simple’ IRAI (13 May 2022) , in French, Kirsty McKenzie, ‘Poll Reveals Sharp Fall in Support for Catalan Independence’ The Olive Press (19 March 2022), , Redfield & Wilton Strategies, ‘Scottish Independence Referendum & Westminster Voting Intention (31 March–1 April 2023)’ < https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-31-march-1-april-2023/> accessed 18 August 2023.59 See Walker-Nolan (n 14).