Disease Burden of Colorectal Cancer in China from 1990 to 2019: Age- and Sex-Specific Time Trends and 10-Year Forecast.

IF 2 4区医学 Q3 ONCOLOGY Oncology Research and Treatment Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2023-12-11 DOI:10.1159/000535664

Gang Zhai, Yuncheng Wang

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Abstract

Introduction: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most prevalent malignant tumor worldwide and the second leading cause of cancer-related death. This study aimed at reporting the disease burden of CRC in China from 1990 to 2019 and predicting the trend of mortality burden over the next 10 years.

Methods: The age-period-cohort model was implemented to analyze the trends of mortality from CRC in China from 1990 to 2019, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the trends of CRC incidence and mortality from 2020 to 2029.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, the incidence of CRC in China increased from 105,911 cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 93,808-119,021) to 607,900 cases (95% UI: 521,805-708,420). The age-standardized incidence rate increased from 12.52 per 100,000 (95% UI: 11.15-14.03) to 30.55 per 100,000 (95% UI: 26.37-35.5), with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 3.66 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.37-3.95), showing an upward trend. The age-standardized mortality rate increased from 10.18 per 100,000 (95% UI: 9.03-11.37) to 13.86 per 100,000 (95% UI: 11.92-16.01), with an EAPC of 1.39 (95% CI: 1.14-1.63), also showing an upward trend. The age group with the highest incidence and mortality in 2019 was 65-69 years old for both sexes, and the age group with the highest mortality was 70-74 years old. Males had higher relative risks of incidence and mortality than females. Low-calcium diet was the risk factor for both sexes and females alone in 1990, while low-milk diet was the risk factor in 2019; however, smoking remained the risk factor for males. The ARIMA model predicted an increase in both disease and mortality burden of CRC over the next 10 years.

Conclusion: The disease and mortality burden of CRC in China showed an overall upward trend from 1990 to 2019, with higher burden in males than females, and the situation remains extremely severe in the next decade.

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1990-2019年中国结直肠癌疾病负担：年龄和性别特异性时间趋势及10年预测。

简介：大肠癌（CRC）是全球发病率第三高的恶性肿瘤，也是第二大癌症致死原因：大肠癌（CRC）是全球发病率第三高的恶性肿瘤，也是导致癌症相关死亡的第二大原因：方法：采用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型分析1990-2019年中国CRC死亡率的变化趋势，采用自回归整合移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测2020-2029年CRC发病率和死亡率的变化趋势：从1990年到2019年，中国的CRC发病率从105,911例（95%不确定区间（UI）：93,808-119,021）增加到607,900例（95%不确定区间（UI）：521,805-708,420）。年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）从每 10 万人 12.52 例（95% 置信区间：11.15-14.03）上升至每 10 万人 30.55 例（95% 置信区间：26.37-35.5），估计年百分比变化（EAPC）为 3.66（95% 置信区间：3.37-3.95），呈上升趋势。年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）从每 10 万人 10.18 例（95% 置信区间：9.03-11.37）上升至每 10 万人 13.86 例（95% 置信区间：11.92-16.01），估计年百分比变化率为 1.39（95% 置信区间：1.14-1.63），也呈上升趋势。2019年男女发病率和死亡率最高的年龄组均为65-69岁，死亡率最高的年龄组为70-74岁。男性发病率和死亡率的相对风险均高于女性。1990 年，低钙饮食是男女和女性单独的风险因素，而 2019 年，低奶饮食是风险因素；然而，吸烟仍然是男性的风险因素。ARIMA模型预测，在未来10年内，CRC的疾病和死亡负担都将增加：结论：从 1990 年到 2019 年，中国的 CRC 疾病和死亡负担总体呈上升趋势，男性的负担高于女性，未来十年的形势依然非常严峻。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Oncology Research and Treatment ONCOLOGY-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： With the first issue in 2014, the journal ''Onkologie'' has changed its title to ''Oncology Research and Treatment''. By this change, publisher and editor set the scene for the further development of this interdisciplinary journal. The English title makes it clear that the articles are published in English – a logical step for the journal, which is listed in all relevant international databases. For excellent manuscripts, a ''Fast Track'' was introduced: The review is carried out within 2 weeks; after acceptance the papers are published online within 14 days and immediately released as ''Editor’s Choice'' to provide the authors with maximum visibility of their results. Interesting case reports are published in the section ''Novel Insights from Clinical Practice'' which clearly highlights the scientific advances which the report presents.