Techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models

IF 1.7 3区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI:10.1002/sdr.1758
G.A. (Guido) Veldhuis, E.M. (Eefje) Smits-Clijsen, R.P.M. (Rob) van Waas
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Abstract

This article demonstrates techniques to enhance the public policy impact of qualitative system dynamics models. We focus on the effective use of a large causal loop diagram (CLD) to explore a multifaceted problem situation. We discuss the conditions that can lead to developing a large CLD, the challenges this presents, and techniques that can be used to overcome them. Several techniques are discussed related to an online group model-building (GMB) process, the use of quantitative data, visual model analyses using a software tool and reporting. The techniques are demonstrated using an impactful case study on the social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We reflect on the efficacy of the approach through the lens of systems thinking and conclude that the techniques made a positive contribution to all aspects of systems thinking. Several avenues for future work are discussed. © 2023 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.
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增强定性系统动力学模型对公共政策影响的技术
本文展示了增强定性系统动力学模型对公共政策影响的技术。我们重点探讨了如何有效利用大型因果循环图(CLD)来探索多方面的问题情境。我们讨论了开发大型因果循环图的条件、所面临的挑战以及可以用来克服这些挑战的技术。我们讨论了与在线小组模型构建(GMB)过程、定量数据的使用、使用软件工具进行可视化模型分析以及报告有关的几种技术。我们通过一个关于 COVID-19 大流行病社会影响的案例研究来展示这些技术。我们从系统思维的角度反思了该方法的有效性,并得出结论:这些技术对系统思维的各个方面都做出了积极贡献。我们还讨论了未来工作的若干途径。© 2023 作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
6.60
自引率
8.30%
发文量
22
期刊介绍: The System Dynamics Review exists to communicate to a wide audience advances in the application of the perspectives and methods of system dynamics to societal, technical, managerial, and environmental problems. The Review publishes: advances in mathematical modelling and computer simulation of dynamic feedback systems; advances in methods of policy analysis based on information feedback and circular causality; generic structures (dynamic feedback systems that support particular widely applicable behavioural insights); system dynamics contributions to theory building in the social and natural sciences; policy studies and debate emphasizing the role of feedback and circular causality in problem behaviour.
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