Using system dynamics to support a functional exercise for pandemic preparedness and response

IF 1.7 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI:10.1002/sdr.1786

Caroline Green, Berend Beishuizen, Mart Stein, Chantal P. Rovers, Alma Tostmann, Daan L. K. de Jong, Claudia Houareau, Knut Perseke, Clara Spieker, Ulrike Grote, Patrick Csornai, Carlos Tighe, Conor Hayes, Jair Andrade, Máire A. Connolly, Jim Duggan

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Abstract

In pandemic preparedness and response, a Functional Exercise (FX) is used to simulate a situation as close to a real‐life event as possible without the deployment of resources. Participants are drawn from public health emergency operations centres, and work through a scenario script to test possible responses to a novel pathogen outbreak. This paper summarises the role of system dynamics modelling in the design and implementation of a functional exercise, which involved the Dutch and German national public health institutes in March 2023. The findings confirm the value of the system dynamics method in integrating disease and hospital models, and also highlights how well the method aligns with modern software development processes. The paper concludes with a discussion of what worked well, and presents areas for future enhancements of management flight simulators to support functional exercises. © 2024 The Author(s). System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

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利用系统动力学支持大流行病防备和应对功能演习

在大流行病防备和应对中，功能演练（FX）用于在不部署资源的情况下模拟一种尽可能接近真实事件的情况。参与者来自公共卫生应急行动中心，通过情景脚本测试对新型病原体爆发可能采取的应对措施。本文总结了系统动力学建模在设计和实施 2023 年 3 月荷兰和德国国家公共卫生研究所参与的功能性演习中的作用。研究结果证实了系统动力学方法在整合疾病和医院模型方面的价值，同时也强调了该方法与现代软件开发流程的一致性。论文最后讨论了哪些方法行之有效，并提出了未来增强管理飞行模拟器以支持功能演练的领域。© 2024 作者简介系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学协会出版。

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来源期刊

System Dynamics Review Multiple-

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The System Dynamics Review exists to communicate to a wide audience advances in the application of the perspectives and methods of system dynamics to societal, technical, managerial, and environmental problems. The Review publishes: advances in mathematical modelling and computer simulation of dynamic feedback systems; advances in methods of policy analysis based on information feedback and circular causality; generic structures (dynamic feedback systems that support particular widely applicable behavioural insights); system dynamics contributions to theory building in the social and natural sciences; policy studies and debate emphasizing the role of feedback and circular causality in problem behaviour.