System Dynamics Review最新文献

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Values‐based food procurement: Black farmers and structural racism in New York State 基于价值观的食品采购：纽约州黑人农民与结构性种族主义

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1789

Jessica L. Gilbert‐Overland

Responding to growing calls for system dynamics (SD) research to engage with structural racism, this article examines the barriers that Black farmers in New York State face and explores values‐based public institutional food procurement (VBFP) as one possible solution for overcoming these barriers. Combining a qualitative data analysis with causal loop diagrams, this analysis reveals that ongoing structural racism generates (1) structural disconnects between Black farmers' and public institutions' supply chains that inhibit their integration; and (2) procurement policies that create new, rather than addressing existing, barriers for Black farmers. VBFP initiatives' potential to support Black farmers is thus dependent upon dismantling structural racism. In addition, this article advances SD supply chain research by examining one effort to align supply chains with social and environmental values and demonstrates how causal loop diagrams, with their emphasis on system structure, reveal why values‐based supply chain efforts in general often struggle. © 2024 System Dynamics Society.

为了响应日益高涨的系统动力学（SD）研究参与结构性种族主义的呼声，本文研究了纽约州黑人农民所面临的障碍，并探讨了以价值观为基础的公共机构食品采购（VBFP）作为克服这些障碍的一种可能的解决方案。结合定性数据分析和因果循环图，该分析揭示了持续存在的结构性种族主义造成了：（1）黑人农民和公共机构供应链之间的结构性脱节，阻碍了他们的融合；（2）采购政策为黑人农民制造了新的障碍，而不是解决现有障碍。因此，VBFP 计划支持黑人农民的潜力取决于消除结构性种族主义。此外，这篇文章还通过考察供应链与社会和环境价值相一致的一项努力，推进了可持续发展供应链研究，并展示了强调系统结构的因果循环图是如何揭示以价值为基础的供应链努力为何往往举步维艰的。© 2024 系统动力学协会。

引用次数: 0

Minding the abstraction gap: approaches supporting implementation 注意抽象差距：支持实施的方法

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1790

Laura J. Black, Donald R. Greer

Regardless of insights gained from building and analyzing dynamic models, the only strategies people can act on are those in their heads. The strategies people internalize are related to their perceived capacities to act—the verbs they believe they can do. If we want others to implement model‐informed policies, then we must connect model abstractions with new situated, concrete actions stakeholders can take. We can emphasize opportunities to act with SD representations, navigating levels of abstraction cleanly, identifying flows as verbs, and choosing variable names that signal who is acting. By drawing on social‐science theories as we offer our grammar of accumulations, activities, and relationships in the language of actions accessible to stakeholders, we help connect experiential understandings to richer, dynamic explanations people can internalize and so discover situated steps to implement policies informed by modeling. © 2024 The Author(s). System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

无论人们从建立和分析动态模型中获得了怎样的洞察力，他们能够付诸行动的唯一策略就是他们头脑中的策略。人们内化的策略与他们感知到的行动能力有关，即他们认为自己可以做到的动词。如果我们想让其他人实施基于模型的政策，那么我们就必须将模型抽象与利益相关者可以采取的新的具体行动联系起来。我们可以通过可持续发展表征来强调行动的机会，清晰地浏览抽象的层次，将流程识别为动词，并选择能表明谁在行动的变量名。通过借鉴社会科学理论，用利益相关者可以理解的行动语言来描述积累、活动和关系的语法，我们可以帮助人们将经验理解与更丰富、更动态的解释联系起来，从而发现实施建模政策的具体步骤。© 2024 作者简介系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

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Developing theoretically grounded causal maps to examine and improve policy narratives about global challenges 绘制有理论依据的因果关系图，以检查和改进有关全球挑战的政策说明

IF 1.7 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1788

Raquel Froese Buzogany, Birgit Kopainsky, Paulo Gonçalves

The Sustainable Development Goals present a call to action for all countries to accelerate the implementation of solutions to address the world's biggest challenges. While policy portfolios to achieve such goals should be varied, often dominant policy narratives cluster around limited themes. We use a grounded theory approach to elicit causality from qualitative data to visualize interactions across variables spanning multiple domains influencing global challenges. We develop a comprehensive causal loop diagram, where we assess the impact of dominant policy narratives and expand the formulation of policy options. Our approach serves as an exemplar application of qualitative system dynamics to distill the operational logic of policy narratives that can subsequently be considered in model‐based policy analysis. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the interactions among poverty and hunger and compare policy implications arising from the dominant narratives only versus those arising from a more comprehensive understanding of the interactions. © 2024 The Author(s). System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

可持续发展目标呼吁所有国家采取行动，加快实施应对世界最大挑战的解决方案。虽然实现这些目标的政策组合应该是多种多样的，但主导性的政策叙述往往围绕着有限的主题。我们采用基础理论方法，从定性数据中找出因果关系，将影响全球挑战的多个领域的变量之间的相互作用可视化。我们绘制了一个全面的因果循环图，评估了主流政策叙事的影响，并扩大了政策选项的制定范围。我们的方法是定性系统动力学应用的典范，可用于提炼政策叙事的运作逻辑，随后可在基于模型的政策分析中加以考虑。我们通过关注贫困与饥饿之间的相互作用来说明我们的方法，并比较了仅从主导叙述中得出的政策影响与从对相互作用的更全面理解中得出的政策影响。© 2024 作者简介系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

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Using system dynamics to support a functional exercise for pandemic preparedness and response 利用系统动力学支持大流行病防备和应对功能演习

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1786

Caroline Green, Berend Beishuizen, Mart Stein, Chantal P. Rovers, Alma Tostmann, Daan L. K. de Jong, Claudia Houareau, Knut Perseke, Clara Spieker, Ulrike Grote, Patrick Csornai, Carlos Tighe, Conor Hayes, Jair Andrade, Máire A. Connolly, Jim Duggan

In pandemic preparedness and response, a Functional Exercise (FX) is used to simulate a situation as close to a real‐life event as possible without the deployment of resources. Participants are drawn from public health emergency operations centres, and work through a scenario script to test possible responses to a novel pathogen outbreak. This paper summarises the role of system dynamics modelling in the design and implementation of a functional exercise, which involved the Dutch and German national public health institutes in March 2023. The findings confirm the value of the system dynamics method in integrating disease and hospital models, and also highlights how well the method aligns with modern software development processes. The paper concludes with a discussion of what worked well, and presents areas for future enhancements of management flight simulators to support functional exercises. © 2024 The Author(s). System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

在大流行病防备和应对中，功能演练（FX）用于在不部署资源的情况下模拟一种尽可能接近真实事件的情况。参与者来自公共卫生应急行动中心，通过情景脚本测试对新型病原体爆发可能采取的应对措施。本文总结了系统动力学建模在设计和实施 2023 年 3 月荷兰和德国国家公共卫生研究所参与的功能性演习中的作用。研究结果证实了系统动力学方法在整合疾病和医院模型方面的价值，同时也强调了该方法与现代软件开发流程的一致性。论文最后讨论了哪些方法行之有效，并提出了未来增强管理飞行模拟器以支持功能演练的领域。© 2024 作者简介系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学协会出版。

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引用次数: 0

A complete shortest independent loop set algorithm for model structure analysis 用于模型结构分析的完整最短独立循环集算法

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-07-09 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1787

Serafina Middleton, Mohammad Motamed

This article looks at the well‐known shortest independent loop set algorithm, which is used to identify an independent loop set in system dynamics models. It addresses the cases where the algorithm fails to find a complete set due to its limitation to geodetic cycles and introduces a modification that has the potential to identify a complete independent loop set in every case while maintaining the efficiency of the original algorithm. The modified algorithm uses second‐shortest paths to complete the loop set. Special attention is given to the creation of the second‐shortest path matrix required for the modified algorithm, and to the application of the algorithm to a model where the independent loop set created by the shortest independent loop set algorithm was previously shown to be incomplete. © 2024 System Dynamics Society.

本文探讨了著名的最短独立循环集算法，该算法用于识别系统动力学模型中的独立循环集。文章探讨了该算法因其对大地周期的限制而无法找到完整环集的情况，并介绍了一种修改算法，该算法有可能在任何情况下都能识别出完整的独立环集，同时保持原始算法的效率。修改后的算法使用次短路径来完成循环集。本文特别关注了修改算法所需的次最短路径矩阵的创建，以及该算法在一个模型中的应用，在该模型中，之前用最短独立循环集算法创建的独立循环集已被证明是不完整的。© 2024 系统动力学会。

引用次数: 0

An analysis of participants' introductory experience with causal loop diagrams (CLDs) using group model building (GMB) scripts 利用小组模型构建（GMB）脚本分析参与者对因果循环图（CLD）的入门经验

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1785

Justin D. Connolly, Graeme J. Doole

Complex decision‐making processes benefit from involving people with different perspectives. We tested the hypothesis that group model building producing causal loop diagrams is a valuable tool to build shared understanding and hear diverse voices, even when project resources (e.g. data, funding, time) are limited. This was tested in two script‐based workshops involving stakeholders in water management issues in Aotearoa‐New Zealand. We collected data on their experience using a quantitative survey and semi‐structured interviews. Analysis shows that group model building met the participants' desire for something different, was found to be a refreshing new process, helped build social cohesion among stakeholders, and improved shared understanding of both the issue and the model they built. While the qualitative outputs were seen as useful, coupling them with quantitative analyses was seen as necessary by some participants, depending on the nature of the issue(s) and decision(s) being made. © 2024 System Dynamics Society.

复杂的决策过程得益于具有不同观点的人的参与。我们对以下假设进行了测试：即使在项目资源（如数据、资金、时间）有限的情况下，制作因果循环图的小组模型构建也是建立共识和倾听不同声音的重要工具。新西兰奥特亚罗瓦水资源管理问题的利益相关者参与了两次基于脚本的研讨会，对这一观点进行了测试。我们通过定量调查和半结构化访谈收集了他们的经验数据。分析表明，小组模型构建满足了参与者对不同事物的渴望，是一个令人耳目一新的过程，有助于在利益相关者之间建立社会凝聚力，并增进了对问题和所建模型的共同理解。虽然定性分析的结果被认为是有用的，但一些参与者认为将定性分析与定量分析结合起来是必要的，这取决于问题和决策的性质。© 2024 系统动力学协会。

引用次数: 0

Reflecting on Zagonel's dichotomy of microworlds and boundary objects 反思扎戈内尔关于微观世界和边界物体的二分法

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-07-04 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1783

Laura J. Black

Aldo Zagonel's distinction between “microworld” and “boundary object” approaches to modeling suggests we ask ourselves pointed questions about what we are valuing, under what conditions, as we involve stakeholders with system dynamics representations. Reflecting on developments in both participatory modeling and large system simulations, I propose that Zagonel's dichotomous descriptions lie along a continuum, with room for scholars and practitioners to explore more explicitly the multiple ways we adapt system dynamics methods to the needs and capacities of the stakeholders with whom we are working at that time. Regardless of approach, whether simulation models or causal diagrams, modifiable in the moment or fixed by design, the goal of using system dynamics representations remains focused on fostering intelligent action among the stakeholders facing the problem of focus. © 2024 The Author(s). System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

奥尔多-扎戈内尔（Aldo Zagonel）区分了 "微观世界 "和 "边界对象 "建模方法，建议我们在让利益相关者参与系统动力学表征时，扪心自问我们在什么条件下重视什么。考虑到参与式建模和大型系统模拟的发展，我认为扎格内尔的二分法描述是一个连续统一体，学者和实践者可以更明确地探索多种方法，使系统动力学方法适应当时与我们合作的利益相关者的需求和能力。无论采用哪种方法，是模拟模型还是因果图，是当下可修改的还是设计固定的，使用系统动力学表述的目标仍然是促进面临重点问题的利益相关者采取明智的行动。© 2024 作者简介系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

引用次数: 0

From text to map: a system dynamics bot for constructing causal loop diagrams 从文本到地图：构建因果循环图的系统动力学机器人

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1782

Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, Aritra Majumdar, Ross Williams, Navid Ghaffarzadegan

We introduce and test the System Dynamics Bot, a computer program leveraging a large language model to automate the creation of causal loop diagrams from textual data. To evaluate its performance, we ensembled two distinct databases. The first dataset includes 20 causal loop diagrams and associated texts sourced from the system dynamics literature. The second dataset comprises responses from 30 participants to a vignette, along with causal loop diagrams coded by three system dynamics modelers. The bot uses textual data and successfully identifies approximately 60% of the links between variables and feedback loops in both datasets. This article outlines our approach, provides examples, and presents evaluation results. We discuss encountered challenges and implemented solutions in developing the System Dynamics Bot. The bot can facilitate extracting mental models from textual data and improve model‐building processes. Moreover, the two datasets can serve as a test‐bed for similar programs. © 2024 The Author(s). System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

我们介绍并测试了 "系统动力学机器人"（System Dynamics Bot），这是一个利用大型语言模型自动从文本数据创建因果循环图的计算机程序。为了评估其性能，我们建立了两个不同的数据库。第一个数据集包括 20 个因果循环图和来自系统动力学文献的相关文本。第二个数据集包括 30 位参与者对一个小故事的回答，以及由三位系统动力学建模人员编码的因果循环图。机器人使用文本数据，成功识别了两个数据集中约 60% 的变量和反馈回路之间的联系。本文概述了我们的方法，提供了示例，并介绍了评估结果。我们讨论了在开发系统动力学机器人过程中遇到的挑战和实施的解决方案。该机器人有助于从文本数据中提取心智模型，并改进模型构建过程。此外，这两个数据集可作为类似程序的测试平台。©2024年作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons 有限公司代表系统动力学学会出版。

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引用次数: 0

Are we there yet? Saturation analysis as a foundation for confidence in system dynamics modeling, applied to a conceptualization process using qualitative data 我们到了吗？饱和度分析作为系统动力学建模信心的基础，应用于使用定性数据的概念化过程

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1781

Andrada Tomoaia‐Cotisel, Samuel D. Allen, Hyunjung Kim, David F. Andersen, Nabeel Qureshi, Zaid Chalabi

Saturation is a useful concept for system dynamics, yet it has not been widely explored or integrated into the modeling process. In this article, we describe saturation as a metaphor describing the point at which a conceptual representation of a system meets the study purpose and no longer requires modification. When saturation is reached, additional data about the problem would not offer added information, thus indicating that additional data gathering and analysis would likely be redundant. We discuss two visualization techniques, “saturation curves” and “shared understanding diagrams,” for assessing saturation when conceptualizing with causal loop diagrams and show their application in a case example. Using saturation analysis during a system dynamics research process has many advantages, including: (i) identifying model structures potentially needing revisions, (ii) observing the extent to which evidence supports the current conceptualization, (iii) reflecting extensively, (iv) documenting important modeling decisions, and (v) potentially improving the problem statement. © 2024 The Author(s). System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

饱和对于系统动力学来说是一个有用的概念，但它尚未被广泛探索或纳入建模过程。在本文中，我们将饱和描述为一个隐喻，意指系统的概念表述达到了研究目的，不再需要修改。当达到饱和状态时，有关该问题的其他数据将不会提供更多信息，从而表明额外的数据收集和分析可能是多余的。我们讨论了两种可视化技术，即 "饱和曲线 "和 "共同理解图"，用于在使用因果循环图进行概念化时评估饱和度，并在一个案例中展示了这两种技术的应用。在系统动力学研究过程中使用饱和度分析有很多好处，包括：(i) 识别可能需要修改的模型结构；(ii) 观察证据对当前概念化的支持程度；(iii) 广泛反思；(iv) 记录重要的建模决策；(v) 可能改进问题陈述。© 2024 作者简介系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

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引用次数: 0

From text to model: Leveraging natural language processing for system dynamics model development 从文本到模型：利用自然语言处理技术开发系统动力学模型

IF 4.8 3区管理学 Q1 Social Sciences

System Dynamics Review

Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1780

G. A. Veldhuis, Dominique Blok, Maaike H. T. de Boer, G. J. Kalkman, Roos M. Bakker, Rob P.M. van Waas

Textual data is abundantly available, and natural language processing (NLP) facilitates its analysis. However, system dynamics (SD) modelling relies on the modeller to identify relevant information. We explore the ability of NLP models to support SD modelling by identifying causal sentences in texts. We provide a primer on the notion of causality in SD and on the linguistic properties of causality, followed by an introduction of NLP models suitable for this task. Using three test cases, we evaluate the performance of the NLP models using common evaluation metrics and an SD model completeness metric. We conclude that NLP models can add considerable value to SD modelling, provided that remaining challenges are addressed. One such caveat is the difference we observe between information regarded as causal and information relevant for describing system structure. We discuss how these challenges can be addressed through collaboration between the NLP and SD fields. © 2024 The Author(s). System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

文本数据非常丰富，自然语言处理（NLP）为数据分析提供了便利。然而，系统动力学（SD）建模依赖于建模者识别相关信息。我们探讨了 NLP 模型通过识别文本中的因果关系句子来支持 SD 建模的能力。我们首先介绍了 SD 中的因果关系概念和因果关系的语言特性，然后介绍了适合这项任务的 NLP 模型。通过三个测试案例，我们使用常见的评估指标和 SD 模型完整性指标对 NLP 模型的性能进行了评估。我们的结论是，只要能解决剩余的难题，NLP 模型就能为 SD 建模带来相当大的价值。其中一个注意事项是，我们观察到被视为因果关系的信息与描述系统结构的相关信息之间存在差异。我们将讨论如何通过 NLP 和 SD 领域的合作来应对这些挑战。©2024年作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

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