Analisis Pengaruh Implementasi AANZFTA terhadap Kreasi dan Diversi Perdagangan Impor Daging Sapi di Indonesia

Abstract

The ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) represents an economic integration among ASEAN, Australia, and New Zealand. Within the AANZFTA framework, a commitment was made to reduce beef import tariff barriers. This reduction in beef import tariffs has the potential to impact Indonesia as a net importer of beef. Beef imports from AANZFTA member countries gain a competitive advantage due to reduced import tariffs, unlike beef imported from non-AANZFTA member countries. Hence, this research aims to: (1) Analyze the influencing factors on beef imports in Indonesia from 2005 to 2020, and (2) Assess the impact of AANZFTA implementation on the creation and redirection of Indonesia’s beef imports. The study involves comparing the volume and value of Indonesian beef imports from AANZFTA member countries (Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore) and non-member countries (United States, India, Japan, and Spain) during the 2005-2020 period. The analytical method employed is panel data regression analysis using a gravity model. The research findings indicate: (1) Beef imports in Indonesia between 2005 and 2020 were influenced by various factors including Indonesia’s beef production, real exchange rate, real GDP per capita of Indonesia, real GDP per capita of exporting countries, trade creation dummy, and trade diversion dummy; (2) AANZFTA implementation resulted in a 2,97% reduction in Indonesia’s beef imports from AANZFTA member countries and a 2,39% increase in beef imports from non-AANZFTA member countries compared to the scenario without AANZFTA implementation.