Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth: A Quantile Regression Approach

IF 0.6 Q4 ECONOMICS South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI:10.1177/22779787231207218

Chen Kong San, Lee Chin

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Abstract

This study aimed at investigating the nexus between government debt and its determinants in the context of sustainable economic growth for 97 countries over the period from 2004 to 2018 by employing a panel data quantile regression and comparing it across a fixed-effects model and a generalized method of moments (GMM) model. The different touches of debt on economic growth were analysed. The quantile regression estimates revealed that government debt has various impacts on economic growth, relying on the degree of economic performance. Government debt negatively affects economic growth across all the quantiles. More interestingly, the quantile regression estimates indicated that in countries with a very low level of real GDP per capita growth, government debt has a stronger pernicious effect on economic growth compared to upper-middle and high-income countries. Hence, our results provided insightful information for policy makers in designing appropriate fiscal policies particularly for low- and lower- middle-income countries to mitigate the negative effect on economic growth, and it should be maintained at a low and reasonable level to promote sustainable economic growth. JEL Classification: E61, E62, E63, H63, O4, O40

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公共债务对经济增长的影响：量化回归方法

本研究旨在通过采用面板数据量化回归，并在固定效应模型和广义矩量法（GMM）模型之间进行比较，调查 2004 年至 2018 年期间 97 个国家在可持续经济增长背景下的政府债务及其决定因素之间的关系。分析了债务对经济增长的不同影响。量化回归估计结果显示，政府债务对经济增长的影响因经济表现程度而异。政府债务对所有量级的经济增长都有负面影响。更有趣的是，量化回归估计结果表明，在实际人均 GDP 增长水平很低的国家，与中高收入和高收入国家相比，政府债务对经济增长的有害影响更大。因此，我们的研究结果为政策制定者，尤其是低收入和中低收入国家的政策制定者提供了有启发性的信息，帮助他们制定适当的财政政策，以减轻政府债务对经济增长的负面影响，并应将政府债务维持在较低的合理水平，以促进经济的可持续增长。JEL Classification：E61, E62, E63, H63, O4, O40

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来源期刊

South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

11.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： The purpose of the Journal is to publish (in English language) peer-reviewed articles, reviews and scholarly comments on issues relating to contemporary global macroeconomics and public finance by which is understood: The Journal is for all professionals concerned with contemporary Macroeconomics and Public Finance and is a forum for all views on related subjects. The Editorial Board welcomes articles of current interest on research and application on the areas mentioned above. The Journal will be international in the sense that it seeks research papers from authors with an international reputation and articles that are of interest to an international audience. In pursuit of the above, the journal shall: a. draw on and include high quality work from the international community of scholars including those in the major countries of Asia, Europe, Asia Pacific, the United States, other parts of the Americas and elsewhere with due representation for considerations of the readership. The Journal shall include work representing the major areas of interest in contemporary research on Macroeconomics and Public Finance and on a wide range of issues covering macro- economics, tax and fiscal issues, banking and finance, international trade, labour economics, computational and mathematical methods, etc. The Journal would particularly engage papers on pure and applied economic theory and econometric methods. b. avoid bias in favour of the interests of particular schools or directions of research or particular political or narrow disciplinary objectives to the exclusion of others. c. ensure that articles are written in a terminology and style which makes them intelligible, not merely within the context of a particular discipline or abstract mode, but across the domain of relevant disciplines.